The drying up of several major European rivers is already making navigation difficult and putting the energy sector under pressure. Against this background, increasing attention is being paid to the situation with the Danube River and the impact of low water levels on the operation of the “Kozloduy“ NPP. The question is how long Bulgaria will remain unaffected by the record low water levels of the river. Dr. Ivan Hinovski, chairman of the Bulgarian Energy Forum, spoke on the subject to bTV.
“It is possible that it will happen in Bulgaria, but in our country things have been postponed in time due to, I would call them, original design solutions of the “Energoproekt“ institute. I don't know how many people remember that “Energoproekt“ was the chief designer. When the technical water supply was being done, “Energoproekt“ kept both the chief designer and the director, and insisted that it be secured by three times 100%. That's why a lot of things were delayed“, explained Hinovski.
According to him, special hollows and a special profile of the channels were made during the design, which is one of the reasons why the problems were postponed in time.
“But it's no lie that we also end up using this water for cooling – not of the nuclear power plants and reactors themselves, but still part of the plant is cooled with water from the Danube“, he pointed out.
Hinovski explained in detail how the cooling system of the nuclear power plant works.
„This system, which takes water from the Danube, is for the third circuit, which cools the turbine condensers. The steam from the turbines enters them, condenses, then is pumped with the so-called condensate pumps and returns again to the steam generators for steam production. That is, this is a cycle - steam in the steam generators, a turbine for production, a condenser and back. Water from the Danube is used for cooling, for condensing this steam in the condensers. This is the third loop.“
Why are nuclear power plants not prepared for extreme heat?
According to Hinovski, the fact that a number of nuclear power plants in Europe have already been forced to limit or shut down capacity due to high temperatures and low water levels raises the question of whether nuclear energy is sufficiently prepared for climate change.
“This is a principle. Look, the design of the “Kozloduy“ NPP and the “Paks“ NPP, as you can see with the other plants, is consistent with these features. The one we see behind us right now is returning the hot water to the Danube,“ he said.
However, the question is whether the crisis in Western and Central Europe can also affect Bulgaria, especially in terms of electricity prices.
France has already limited capacity due to high temperatures, and the country is heavily dependent on nuclear energy. Serious problems are also observed in Hungary.
Will electricity become more expensive because of the drought?
“Such a reflection is inevitable, because you see - you take out one of the cheapest electricity producers and include other, more expensive ones. It is natural that this will affect the prices on the exchange. I am sure that Bulgaria will feel it too“, said Hinovski.
According to him, if it is necessary to compensate for lost capacities, it will be necessary to involve other producers.
“Because instead of the “Paks“ NPP and other capacities, thermal power plants and other gas-fired plants should be put into operation. We don't have any, but there are gas-fired plants in the region, which will inevitably raise the exchange prices of electricity.“
However, it is difficult to predict exactly how much the price of electricity would increase.
“It is very difficult. It depends on how long this crisis, the dry weather, will last. Because, ultimately, this is a process that is influenced by natural factors“, the expert pointed out.
Summer also brings a positive factor for the electricity system - high production from photovoltaic plants. At certain times, they provide the largest share of electricity in Bulgaria.
According to Hinovski, however, this is not enough to compensate for potential problems with nuclear power plants.
“Yes, undoubtedly at the moment. Look, this does not save us, because we have already reached our development, reached the standard of living of Bulgaria and the industry. Summer electricity consumption becomes almost the same as winter consumption.“
He explained that in winter the main load comes from heating, while in summer consumption increases due to cooling.
„Winter consumption is for heating, summer time is for cooling – air conditioners, conditioners and so on. So the summer peak in our country is measured by the winter peak of the electricity system.“
What will happen if the Danube continues to dry up?
A specialized group is closely monitoring the situation at the „Kozloduy“ NPP, as well as the levels of the Danube River. The question is what actions will be taken if the water level continues to fall.
„There is a plan. Great professionals work, they work at the plant. Professionals have always worked. I do not want to dwell on some critics of the „Kozloduy“ NPP about the fact that it is managed amateurishly, that there is theft. In „Kozloduy“ "excellent professionals are working," Hinovski was categorical.
According to him, specialists are currently monitoring the water level and have forecasts for its movement.
„They are currently monitoring the level, they have a forecast, they know what the level is at the moment. The countries before us are monitoring how the level is moving.“
According to the expert, the water level is currently around 20.8 meters, with a reserve of up to 20.5 meters.
„At 20.5 meters, the decommissioning of one of the units will begin. That is, reducing the power. Reducing the power until the balance between hot and cold water is assessed. Because keep in mind that it cannot infinitely reduce the consumption of cold water.“
When asked how close Bulgaria is to the moment when it will be necessary to take such measures if the level of the Danube continues to fall, for example, by about a centimeter per day, Hinovski indicated that calculations have been made.
„There are different estimates. Today we made calculations. But according to the conservative estimates of the people in „Kozloduy“ and the teams have two weeks.“
This means that if the current trend continues, within about two weeks a phased decommissioning of one of the units may begin.
„Within two weeks, if this continues, the phased decommissioning of one of the units will begin“, said the chairman of the Bulgarian Energy Forum.
What are the Romanians achieving by blasting a rock mass?
In recent days, attention has also been drawn to the decision of the Romanian authorities to blast a rock mass in a controlled manner in order to free the path of water and ensure its reaching the nuclear power plant.
According to Hinovski, the actions of Romania and Hungary are different from those undertaken in Bulgaria.
„In contrast, I emphasize the extremely professional role of our engineers, because as the project is ingenious for the cooling of the Kozloduy NPP, and three years ago a project was completed to deepen a section in front of the river, where water is taken for the Kozloduy NPP.
According to him, additional technical deepening was also made, which increased the safety of cooling.
„An additional technical deepening was also made, which actually increased the safety of cooling. These things have no impact on us, that is, the Romanian actions and the Hungarian actions. The Hungarian project is an example of a hasty project for hydrotechnical actions.“
Who will pay the bill for the replacement of over 3 million electricity meters?
At the end of the conversation, the question was also raised about the upcoming replacement of over 3 million electricity meters in Bulgaria and who will bear the costs for this.
„Certainly such. This is something that will happen in the next three to five years“, said Hinovski.
When asked whether the bill will be paid by the subscribers, he indicated that there is a possibility of using European funds.
„Look, there are European funds. Just as the Modernization Fund has funds in it, of course we will bear part of these costs. But they will not be decisive.“
According to him, replacing electricity meters will not be the most serious expense that climate change will impose.
„I bet that this will not be reflected soon. Climate change and the need to take stricter measures to invest in environmentally friendly technologies will prove to be more expensive than our electricity meters.“
The conversation ended with gratitude to Dr. Ivan Hinovski for the analysis of current topics related to record heat, low Danube levels, the operation of the „Kozloduy“ NPP and the impact of climate change on the energy system.