Fuel prices remain among the leading topics at the end of September, against the backdrop of the ongoing uncertainty in world markets due to military actions and tensions in the Middle East. The price of oil has been falling slightly in recent days, but the question remains how long the trend will be sustainable and how this will affect the prices of the columns in Bulgaria.
According to the executive director of the Bulgarian Oil and Gas Association (BPGA), Andrey Delchev, crude oil prices are currently lower compared to September 15. “Brent grade, which we usually monitor and comment on, was around $107 per barrel on September 15. Today it is $103, i.e. there is 4% – 4 dollars down“, explained Delchev.
According to him, the price of oil in the OPEC basket has also decreased. “The types of oil that are in the OPEC basket also fell from 124 dollars to 109 dollars. That is, the trend is really like this at the moment“, he said. However, Delchev warned that it is still not clear whether this is a permanent trend or a temporary decline. “But I do not know how much of a permanent trend is it and how much of a temporary decline is it, because since February 28, when the military actions in the Strait of Hormuz began, until now we have heard many statements, many times the prices fell, many times they rose. Brent reached 124 dollars, fell below 100, now it is again hovering around 100 and a few dollars. That is, this uncertainty in the market remains“, he told BTV.
Why don't the prices of the columns immediately follow the oil?
According to Delchev, fuel prices react faster to negative news than to positive signals. “There are several reasons. Theoretically, there could be many reasons, but I will tell you the reasons for Bulgaria“, he explained. In his words, the retail price cannot automatically follow the daily fluctuations of world quotations. “The prices of crude oil that you usually know are always such broken curves, they are different from the way the price of the column is reflected. Because the retail price cannot reflect these daily movements, it rather reflects the up-down trends“, Delchev said.
He pointed out that there is usually a delay of several days in both the increase and decrease in the price of oil. “Usually, when the price of crude oil goes up and when it goes down, there is a lag of a few days. Gas stations never automatically follow that trend“, he said.
The reason, he said, is related to the risk of sudden changes in prices. “If you start increasing your price when oil goes up on the first day and it crashes, you are uncompetitive. If you reduce the price back when oil starts to go down in a day or two, right now, it may turn out that you are selling at a price at which you cannot restore the next quantities“, explained Delchev.
Is there a limit after which people will stop refueling?
Against the background of the crossing of psychological thresholds of 2 euros per liter for diesel and nearly 1.70 euros for the most popular A95 gasoline, Delchev was asked where the limit is at which people will start to limit the use of their cars. “Where the limit is, the Ministry of Social Affairs or more generally the social partners can probably say, because they measure the affordability of prices“, he said.
According to him, the main goal of the industry is to guarantee the availability of fuels on the market. “What we do as a petroleum association is to strive to sell fuels with the minimum possible markups and to have a constant supply of fuel on the market. Because the problem is not just how much fuel costs, but whether it is available. It is worse when there is none“, said Delchev.
Why is diesel the big problem in Europe?
According to him, diesel is becoming an increasingly serious problem on the European market. “We know that diesel is a big problem in Europe in general, because it turns out to be quite scarce. Diesel in Europe is a big problem, which is why its price in Europe and in Bulgaria has sharply broken away from the price of gasoline, of unleaded gasoline“, he said. Delchev explained that there are several reasons, but he paid special attention to the difference between the increase in fuel prices in Bulgaria and the average values for the European Union.
According to Eurostat data, in August 2026, diesel in the EU increased in price by 8.3% compared to the previous month, while in Bulgaria the increase was 13.5%. On an annual basis, our country also reports a significant increase in the price of fuels and lubricants. “This is the most asked question recently. Why is Bulgaria ahead in terms of percentage? Moreover, we have a refinery“, commented Delchev. According to him, the explanation can be found in a report by the Commission for the Protection of Competition from March 2026.
“It can be found in the report of the CPC from March this year. The CPC, which is the regulator that monitors the oil market“, he said. According to him, the report contains important findings on the way prices are formed. “What they tell us is the following: the executive branch at that time, in March this year, 2026, did not take measures to overcome the price spiral, but rather to postpone it“, said Delchev. He added that according to the analysis, price restrictions were imposed between wholesale prices and retail prices.
“The executive branch and the special administrator in office at that time, different from the current one, imposed a price squeeze between the wholesale prices of “Lukoil“ and retail prices at gas stations of “Lukoil“, respectively at “Petrol“, he said.
According to Delchev, this is precisely what can explain the higher rate of price increase in Bulgaria. “When you start from a lower base, increasing with the markup that more expensive oil leads to, this leads to a higher rate of price increase than those that start from a higher base“, he explained. At the same time, according to him, when comparing absolute prices, the picture is different. “If we break away from the percentage and go to the absolute amounts, you will again see, as we have said many times, that Bulgaria is at the bottom. That is, we buy oil as expensive as any other country buys, because we buy it on world markets, but our fuels in the European Union are at the bottom in terms of prices“, said Delchev.
Why is the state reducing the excise tax on propane-butane and not on diesel?
When asked why the state is taking measures for propane-butane, but not reducing the excise tax on diesel, Delchev explained that Bulgaria has already reached the minimum rate set by the European Union. “Because with diesel, we are at the minimum rate that the European Union requires and we cannot move down. It has been imposed on us as a benchmark, a barrier for all European countries“, he said. In his words, countries that have set a higher national excise tax have the opportunity to reduce it.
“But those that have set a higher excise tax on their fuels in their national tax systems can reduce it. We cannot“, said Delchev. Regarding propane-butane, he pointed out that the specific effect on the price cannot be determined in advance.
“I cannot tell you how much it will become cheaper, because it is again a matter of the market, but anyway propane-butane is one of the mass fuels used in taxis and in many other service vehicles“, he explained. According to him, the excise tax on natural gas used for automotive purposes will also be temporarily abolished.
Inspections of gas stations
Regarding the inspections initiated by the Consumer Protection Commission due to suspicions of unjustified price increases, Delchev said: “We welcome the Consumer Protection Commission to inspect, the Consumer Protection Commission to inspect.“ “ “It always happens that when prices go up, the state comes in to inspect with its doubts“, he added. Will lifting the export ban benefit “Lukoil“?