Vladimir Putin's strongest weapon is surprise. Unfortunately, since 2008, Russia has repeatedly achieved this. It is high time to be aware and not to allow any more surprises on the part of Russia, and secondly, to surprise Russia with actions that show that fear cannot be a tool for creating international order.
This is what Prof. Velizar Shalamanov, former Minister of Defense, told FOCUS.
According to Shalamanov, success for Ukraine will be if Russia's offensives stop and there is a surprising breakthrough in a direction that would allow important territories for Ukraine to be freed from Russian occupation in 2024: "But this is really a big challenge . Regarding Russia, President Putin retains various options in case of serious successes by Ukraine, including using the new weapons to strike targets on Russian territory, the option of using tactical nuclear weapons will be played by President Putin. In the event of a potential success of the offensive launched by the Russians, although it does not have a strategic character and an unfavorable development in the long term for Russia, President Putin has the option to freeze the conflict, and with a significant part of the Ukrainian territory that is occupied, warned Assoc. .Shalamanov.
According to him, it is important to be clear what the strategic options are in support of Ukraine: "At a minimum, they are not just a clear prospect of NATO membership, but a real invitation to NATO membership, and in the event of a serious offensive by the Russians - fulfillment of President Macron's words to receive practical military assistance, including with troops of individual countries with which Ukraine has a security agreement.
Regarding the change that Vladimir Putin made in the security sphere, replacing his long-time favorites - Sergei Shoigu and Nikolai Patrushev, Shalamanov explained: "The change is placed in the context of the understanding of the fifth term of President Putin, who secured re-election with 87%, and with the clear awareness that this support is also support for Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Strategically, as a communication, this change is not related to failures, but rather related to confidence that this is the right path for Russia and that a development in the field of defense will be sought, which is more tied to improved logistics, with connection with the military-industrial complex and the search for a political and economic solution to this initiative of President Putin, not only militarily.
"At the same time, the military is given more freedom, but they will also bear the responsibility if they do not meet the expectations that are placed on them. It's more of a communication - what will actually happen, but we'll see in the coming weeks and months. The situation at the front is very complicated. The new weapons that the West is providing to Ukraine, albeit with a delay, must show that they can turn the situation around, and by striking objects important to Russia, said Prof. Velizar Shalamanov.