The world is not only Ukraine or the Middle East, especially Gaza and Syria. It is not even Venezuela, where another military action is expected after threats from President Trump. For example, military and diplomatic activity is increasing in the Eastern Mediterranean, and this is nothing more than a signal that the regional balance there is also on the brink.
It is normal to observe and follow the process closely. The steps of the United States to institutionalize cooperation with Cyprus, Greek, as it is called, in the field of defense are sufficient grounds to claim that Washington is “paving the way”.
A bill to lift the 1987 arms embargo on Cyprus has already been submitted to the House of Representatives. Currently, the embargo is suspended with annual approval by the president, but the initiative for permanent removal is interpreted as a political will to deepen defense relations between the US and Cyprus. A member of the EU and recognized by all, unlike Northern Cyprus, the so-called TRNC, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is recognized only by Turkey. After its separation in 1974. through a Turkish military invasion of the island.
It should not be forgotten that from January 1, 2026, Cyprus will preside over the Council of the EU, and this creates conditions for coordination on issues related to the EU and current international topics. This is against the backdrop of increased regional geopolitical tensions. And after a move before the presidency with a meeting in Paris between the President of Cyprus Christodoulides and Macron. This meeting is seen as part of Nicosia's strategy to strengthen international alliances. The leaked information focuses on the discussed common European approaches, maintaining unity and stability within the EU, current regional and international developments and of course - Cyprus' priorities for the presidency of the Council of the EU.
A strategic partnership agreement has been signed between Cyprus and France, which strengthens cooperation in defense and the economy. Paris is establishing a permanent presence in Cyprus. And the signatures of Nikos Christodoulides and Macron were placed at a ceremony at the Elysee Palace and with the aim of enhanced cooperation in many areas - defense, economy, culture, innovation and education. As they say, Cyprus is in fashion and not only because of the huge amounts of gas discovered in the territorial waters of the island.
In fact, for decades, no solution has been found for the so-called Cyprus issue that would satisfy both Greece and Turkey, but especially the citizens of the country divided since 1974. “Big stars over Famagusta” still rise above deserted beaches, abandoned, crumbling houses and gutted hotels. Ankara insists on the recognition of two states - Southern Cyprus and the TRNC, making unremitting efforts to present “its Cyprus” at every international meeting with proposals to be recognized as an independent state.
This is the so-called two-state solution in Cyprus. Athens, for its part, categorically rejects the idea and is most inclined to a federal state. The protection of the Cypriots, i.e. the Greek Cypriots, is the main task of every Greek government, regardless of the fact that Cyprus has its own government and institutions that have been defending their own policy for decades. But it is a fact that recently there has been a “dangerous silence on Cyprus” in Ankara.
After the presidential elections in the TRNC, the two-state solution and recognition were suddenly pushed to the background. President-elect Tufan Erhurman declares his readiness to return to the negotiating table with the UN and Cyprus, Greek, and in the Turkish government in Ankara, they say that silence reigns. It is noticeable that even the phrase "two-state solution in Cyprus", which was constantly used by Ankara, has not been mentioned recently in the latest parliamentary speeches of the ministers of foreign affairs and national defense. The Turkish media write that there has been a "softening of rhetoric" after Erhurman's election as president of the TRNC. His messages after the elections are for progress towards a federal solution. He also organizes meetings with the Greek Cypriot side. Including within the UN.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in a speech to the Mejlis, the parliament, on December 9, regarding the activities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that “achieving the position that the TRNC deserves in the international community, lifting the inhuman embargo against the Turkish Cypriots are among Turkey's main priorities”. He stressed that Turkey maintains its will to develop a positive agenda with Athens and wants to see the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean as a region of stability and prosperity.
On December 11, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler also emphasized that "the only way out for a just and lasting solution on the island is to accept the sovereign equality and equal international status of the Turkish Cypriots." The two ministers' speeches did not include the phrase "a two-state solution in Cyprus." Official Ankara apparently sees no problem in the negotiations led by Tufan Erhürman, but this "is not a change in the political line." Greece's position is important, but the hopes are that in the 2026 elections in Cyprus, Greek, someone with a “softer, more liberal rhetoric” will be elected, not like that of “the exceptional nationalist Christodoulides”.
The question is why, after so many years of advocating the thesis of two states on the island of Cyprus and an official foreign policy of the “homeland, the Republic of Turkey”, which insists on “two sovereign states”, is Ankara now silent regarding messages of “progress towards a federal solution”? Repeated loudly by the new TRNC president Tufan Erhurman. So in Levkosha, the Turkish part of Nicosia, nothing is done without Ankara's approval. Does this silence mean approval or a strategic period of waiting after the heady events around the world? It can be assumed that Turkey has not abandoned its official two-state policy in Cyprus, but is consciously reducing the sharpness of its rhetoric due to the international situation. Pressure from the US, the EU and the UN, the changing balance in the Eastern Mediterranean and regional negotiations require Ankara to use more flexible language.
This simply means that it is not pursuing a policy of reversal, but a diplomatic maneuver to gain time. But there may be a temporary discrepancy between the policy of the ruling party in Turkey and the tactical approach of the country's political leadership. In a way, Ankara supports the two-state solution as a strategic goal, but Erdogan insists on using language that "does not completely close the doors". It seems like an internal contradiction, but it is also clearly an attempt to present an image of a country open to negotiations and compromises. Something that is often demonstrated in relation to Ukraine. There is also a possibility that there is a signal of a de facto change in the two-state policy. There is no clarity on the topic, and this creates uncertainty for the situation in the TRNC and its citizens. They say that the most dangerous thing in the Cyprus issue is precisely the lack of clarity. The saying that it is easiest to fish in murky waters is also familiar to the Turks.
In the West and in Cyprus, Ankara's silence is perceived as “Turkey is softening its decision for two states, the federation is possible and time is working in our favor”. Does this mean common ground, because Turkey is giving in and a little more pressure is needed to achieve results? And why will Turkey do it right now and what will it do against? The Turkish Cypriots will definitely want an open discussion and in front of the public on the topic of a new federation on the island of Cyprus. It should not happen behind closed doors and with unclear agreements in the style of a deal. But with Ankara's silence, suspicions of behind-the-scenes actions with different interpretations increase.
The beneficiary of such a situation is Greek Cyprus, say a number of observers in Ankara. But if it is a question of indecision, this is not neutrality, but an opportunity for the other side to achieve its goals. In Cyprus, the number of military bases, including English, US, and French, is already growing, and the presence of other players has long been known. It smells of gas and the Cyprus fashion is here. It is simply close to the Middle East and Europe. Ukrainian banks have replaced Russian ones, and migrants are an indispensable part of the island's landscape. Kyrenia is called Girne in Turkish, but the fortress in this beautiful resort center of the TRNC only reminds us that the English military base here is not a thing of the past. It is normal to closely monitor events in this regard, because quite a few experts around the world are talking about war in the coming years.
What if the silence regarding ideas for the federalization of Cyprus is nothing more than entering the EU through the back door, since Cyprus is a member of the “club of the rich”, as they say in our country? Since it is known that citizens of, for example, Germany of Turkish origin hold important positions in almost all parties in the country? Ankara's influence is tied up in a handkerchief, say expert observers. This is also the reason for careful monitoring of ongoing processes. Not only in Cyprus.