Tensions between Iran and the United States are growing. Will the ultimatum of US President Donald Trump contribute to a diplomatic solution to the conflict or will it lead to a military escalation in the Middle East? The countdown is on.
According to observers, this is one of the most critical moments in the history of the Middle East: tomorrow (Thursday, February 26) negotiations between the United States and Iran on the Iranian nuclear and missile programs will be renewed in Geneva. Politicians and experts are increasingly saying that the “countdown“ before military action has begun. Unless an agreement is reached.
Will a limited military strike be possible?
According to an article in the “Wall Street Journal“ in recent days, US President Donald Trump is considering a first limited military strike against Iran. The aim is to force the country to accept his demands for a nuclear agreement. According to the information, this step is intended as a means of pressure to avoid an all-out war that could provoke massive retaliation.
At the same time, it is said that if Iran still refuses to respond to American demands, the US government may also consider a significantly broader military campaign against state institutions. The goal would be to weaken or overthrow the government in Tehran.
Iran stated in a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that it does not want to start a war. However, if the country were to be subjected to a military attack, it would respond “resolutely and adequately“ within its right to self-defense.
Risks of military escalation
Two US officials confirmed to Reuters on February 20 that US military plans were already in an advanced stage. Among the options are targeted attacks on specific individuals, as well as measures that could even lead to regime change - provided that Trump gives the appropriate order.
Damon Golriz, a strategic analyst at the Institute for Geopolitics in The Hague, warns in this regard that even a limited military intervention is likely to exceed its initial scope. A regime that faces existential threats on several fronts no longer sees escalation as an option, but as a fight for survival. Under the pressure of massive internal unrest and international isolation, Tehran will trigger a "chain reaction" through the actions of groups it controls, which, according to Golriz, could lead to an explosive development of the situation.
The expert refers to the assessment of former CIA director David Petraeus, who warned that even a massive military strike would have only a limited effect on the stability of the government in Iran and would not necessarily lead to regime change.
Therefore, Trump will likely continue to strive for an agreement, believes Kamran Matin, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Sussex: "A military conflict would be difficult to predict and there is no clear exit strategy. The president's advisers have also repeatedly pointed out the risks of open conflict,“ says Kamran.
Israel is putting increasing pressure
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to convince Trump to take military action. Netanyahu is pushing for a “hard response”, which he advocated in a speech to the Knesset: “We are prepared for any scenario. I have made it clear to the ayatollah regime: if they make the biggest mistake in their history and attack Israel, we will respond with force they cannot imagine“.
According to Israeli Middle East expert Menashe Amir, Tel Aviv has convinced Washington with extensive evidence that the problems in the region can only be solved radically by overthrowing the regime. He adds: “In Trump’s recent statements, we see that he is raising not only the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, but also the repression of the Iranian population. This may be a sign of a fundamental change in the doctrine of the American president,” Amir points out.
These political and military signals increase the pressure on the upcoming talks in Geneva, which many observers consider the last chance for a diplomatic solution. They are much more than dialogue – experts even speak of a historic ultimatum to Tehran.
Will the regime in Iran fall?
However, analysts are skeptical that these developments could lead to a secular democracy in Iran. Kamran Mateen refers to the new US National Security Strategy, which states that the US focus has shifted from the Middle East to China. Without a clear political alternative, the more likely option for the US is to make an agreement with the current regime.
Damon Golriz also doubts that the US could pave the way for a truly secular democracy in Iran: “The persistence of this regime, which has killed more than 30,000 protesters, shows how far the democratic transition still is“. The emergence of an authoritarian military government is more likely. And in the worst case, it could lead to a total collapse of the state and regional wars, the observer points out.