Author: Ivan Preobrazhensky
The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, are destroying Ukraine's rear, helping the Kremlin. The conflict over the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, accidentally or not, is doing Putin a favor, writes Ivan Preobrazhensky.
The conflict over the "Druzhba" oil pipeline showed Putin's true goal - to strike Ukraine in the back through Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, to turn Europeans against each other, and to blame Brussels for everything.
Slovakia and Hungary are demanding that the Ukrainian authorities repair the old Soviet oil pipeline "Druzhba", which was damaged by Russian strikes, through which these countries continued to receive cheap Russian oil under an exception to the EU sanctions regime. The prime ministers of both countries, Robert Fico and Viktor Orban, almost daily accuse Ukraine of political blackmail, although their own actions are more like blackmail. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Kremlin openly gloats, supporting their claims.
Lost in the Pipe
The oil pipeline "Druzhba" was once the longest in the world. It was because the gigantic Soviet project, designed to link the satellite countries of Central and Eastern Europe to the USSR, had already ceased to function along a significant part of its route before its latest interruption. At first, Russia itself "punished" Lithuania and in 2006 stopped supplying crude oil to the country. Then, in 2022, after the start of the war against Ukraine, supplies were gradually reduced along the entire northern branch of the "Druzhba", which led to Poland, and at one time reached the former GDR.
The conditional southern route remained - through Ukraine, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, and all the way to Croatia. But Croatia and the Czech Republic gradually gave up Russian oil, although the Czechs, together with the Hungarians and Slovaks, had received from the EU the right to use an exception to the general sanctions regime. All this time, including after the Russian invasion, Ukraine remained a reliable transit country, fulfilling the requests of Hungary and Slovakia. Even when Russia stopped paying for transit due to sanctions, the suspension of supplies was only short-lived.
In fact, all this could be called blackmail from the very beginning. Since a significant part of Western aid to Ukraine passed through the territory of these two countries, although mainly non-military. Kiev could not refuse them, risking falling into exactly the same situation of pressure and blackmail as it found itself in now - after the Russians damaged the pipeline during the fighting, as the Ukrainian authorities claim.
Entry through the exit
The groans of Hungary and Slovakia, which is in solidarity with it, regarding the catastrophic oil situation should not be taken too seriously - the "Druzhba" pipeline It reached as far as Croatia, and now they could turn it in the opposite direction. Croatian terminals allow oil to be ordered and bought on world markets - something that the Hungarians and Slovaks have actually already done. But they complain that it costs them more than Russian oil - which is apparently paid for not only with money, but also with political loyalty. It is no coincidence that Orbán and Fico were the only European leaders who, after 2022, continued to meet with Putin and shake his hand, and within the EU they refused to participate in the provision of the 90 billion loan to Ukraine. Hungary ultimately blocked the loan, insisting that the “Družba” pipeline be restarted.
Hungary and Slovakia actually had other supply options. The Czech Republic, which for years relied on "Druzhba", managed to free itself from Russian oil dependence and would be able to help neighboring countries. The problem, however, is that they do not need such help. Cheap Russian oil is not only profitable, but in Hungary it is also a means of political agitation, especially before the parliamentary elections on April 12, which the ruling party risks losing - this is what sociological surveys show. For Orban's party members, as well as for the prime minister himself, the forced increase in the price of gasoline, which was much cheaper in Hungary than in neighboring countries, would be a heavy blow.
Therefore, it is not surprising that threats are being made to terminate emergency supplies to the Ukrainian energy system, which has been largely destroyed by Russian missile and drone strikes. The same applies to the threat to cut off supplies of diesel, which is needed not only for the military equipment of the Ukrainian army, but also for mobile electricity generators that save Ukrainians, including hospitals and maternity hospitals, from complete freezing and the shutdown of all equipment.
The Kremlin's mockery
Russia is closely monitoring what is happening and openly mocks Ukraine and the EU. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who happily announced that European consumers would be freezing without Russian gas after 2022, is now suddenly concerned about the “energy security of the European continent as a whole“.
For Russia, the financial revenues from supplies to Hungary and Slovakia are apparently not as important as the opportunity to strike at Ukraine's defense capabilities through Orbán and Fico, and to turn Europeans against each other, blaming Brussels for all this – just as Zakharova has already done.