Iran quickly and cheaply produces missiles and drones with which it responds to military strikes by the United States and Israel. But Tehran can only rely on its own forces in this war. How long can it last without capitulating.
On the third day of the war, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani said that, unlike the United States, Iran has prepared to wage a long war. He echoed what other Islamic Republic officials said on February 28: “We will defend ourselves no matter what”.
Iran responds with ballistic missiles
Since February 28, the United States and Israel have been waging a coordinated and massive military offensive against Iran. The attacks have targeted leaders, military and government institutions. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel and on US bases in neighboring Persian Gulf countries. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) alone has been subjected to hundreds of attacks by Iran. According to Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the US regional command for the Middle East (Centcom), as of Wednesday, March 4, Iran had launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones. He accused Iran of indiscriminately attacking civilian targets.
“We don't know exactly how many ballistic missiles and drones Iran has“, said a weapons expert in an interview with DW, who preferred to remain anonymous. At the same time, he confirmed the thesis that has been discussed by military experts since the beginning of the war: if Iran had not attacked Israel with hundreds of missiles in October 2024 to avenge the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, “Pandora's box“ would not have been opened for it now.
With the attack carried out then, Iran revealed the weakness of its long-range missiles, since the missiles launched failed to hit the intended targets with accuracy. Thus, the missile program lost one of its important purposes – to be a deterrent.
Logistics and production of missiles and drones
The Israeli military estimates that Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles before the start of the current conflict. But its stockpile has since dwindled, partly because many missiles have been destroyed or buried in the tunnels where they were stored during Israeli-American bombing. Satellite images circulating online show strikes on missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad and northern Tabriz. They show collapsed tunnel entrances to underground storage facilities that were destroyed in the latest strikes.
“We are also seeing mobile missile launchers being eliminated more and more successfully. What was very difficult five years ago is now possible thanks to technological advances,“ the weapons expert said. It is not known, however, how many missiles were removed from these warehouses and distributed in the country before the start of the air strikes against Iran, as well as how many missile launchers are still available.
Another question is how flexible Iran is in producing drones. According to leaked Russian documents, Tehran can produce about 5,000 drones per month. They are launched from a simple structure that is built in a few hours. The production of one of these drones, known as the “Shahed“, costs Iran several thousand dollars. For comparison: a “Patriot“ missile costs about three million dollars.
According to an analysis by the “New York Times“, based on satellite images and verified video recordings, over the weekend and Monday Iran used short-range missiles and drones to damage facilities that are part of the communication and radar systems of at least seven US military bases in the Middle East. However, the US military's communication infrastructure is kept strictly secret, which makes it difficult to determine the exact number of systems that were affected.
Consequences for the population and the region
“Iran will try to prolong the war and buy time“, said Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, in an interview with DW: “The Iranian leadership has had time to plan and coordinate its actions. I think they are preparing for a long war“.
The consequences of the war are mainly at the expense of the population in Iran, which is defenseless against the attacks. The United States and Israel claim that they are carrying out precise and targeted strikes, but in densely populated cities it is almost impossible to avoid major collateral damage. On the first day, according to Iranian data, a primary school was hit in the city of Minab in the south of the country. Iranian state media showed footage on Tuesday of the mass burials of 168 children aged between 7 and 12, as well as their teachers. The United Nations described the attack as shocking and demanded an investigation.
Israel denied attacking the school in Minab, which is located about 40 kilometers from the Gulf of Oman. The United States, which has several aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea, announced that it would investigate the incident.