Political advisor Bishara Baba participated in Donald Trump's 2024 election campaign and later mediated on his behalf in the war in Gaza. Now he sharply criticizes the US president in an interview with Isabelle Shayani for ARD.
How do you see this war?
Bishara Baba: In reality, this is Israel's war. Israel set the moment. Israel pushed the United States to attack Iran. In short: I don't see a clear goal for the US. The latest opinion polls show that 56 percent of Americans are against this war. The overwhelming majority of Democrats and even 20% of Republicans are against the war.
The Iranians retaliated, and this expanded the war: they attacked neighboring Arab countries and even Cyprus. They felt existentially threatened, so they decided to attack all American bases in the Persian Gulf.
We are witnessing a dramatic expansion of the war. Its further expansion would be catastrophic, but Iran would welcome it because it no longer has anything to lose. Trump, on the other hand, would like a short war and will resist extending it.
"There is no nuclear threat from Iran"
Trump also justified the attack by saying that the United States had to defend itself: Iran was on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons. What do you think of this statement?
Baba: I am often reminded of how, after the 12-day war, the US government announced that Iran's nuclear capabilities had been destroyed. And what happened after that? I do not believe that Iran sought to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran's ballistic missiles are a serious threat. But there is no nuclear threat from Iran.
Will Arab money be withdrawn from the US? What impact do the attacks have on the Gulf states, where you spend a lot of time as a mediator?
Baba: The Gulf states have spent hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars to arm themselves with US weapons and to allow the United States to build military bases in their countries. Yet they have suffered Iranian attacks while Israel has been largely protected. The priority has been to protect Israel. And now they may ask themselves: Why did we pay so much to secure US protection, and when the time comes, we don't get it?
It has become clear that the only ally of the US is Israel - the others don't count. And that is precisely why there is so much anger in Arab capitals right now. There is even talk of withdrawing trillions of Arab money from the United States and taking a more neutral position.
But that is not in Trump's interest, is it?
Baba: Of course it is not. That is why he will try to get out of this situation as quickly as possible. The most sensible thing would be to end this war as quickly as possible - if only for the sake of the sense of security of Iran's wealthy Arab neighbors. I suspect a waning influence of the United States in the Persian Gulf.
What role do the Kurds play?
Baba: The Kurds get their weapons from Israel. They are located in the triangle between Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria. The Kurds are seeking to create their own state. If that ever happens, it would destabilize these four countries. If there is any ground operation now, it will probably not be American or Israeli troops. It will most likely be Kurdish forces. The United States and Israel would arm the Kurds, but they would not send their own soldiers there.
Pahlavi is a "romantic notion"
Some Iranians, both at home and in the diaspora abroad, have high hopes that the regime will fall. They associate this hope with the name of Reza Pahlavi. Is this a romantic notion or is there a real possibility of his return?
Baba: It is a romantic notion. When Trump met with Reza Pahlavi, he was not impressed and did not believe that he would be a strong leader for the next phase. So I do not think that the US believes that they can induce or impose regime change. The Israelis, on the other hand, are naturally interested in regime change. That is why I think the idea of the Shah returning to Iran is inappropriate, very optimistic and romantic.
"Iran is not Venezuela"
Maybe the US and Israel needed Reza Pahlavi to make their strikes seem more acceptable to the people of Iran?
Baba: And yet I don't think regime change was likely. The US and Israel are being strategic in their attacks. Of course, from the US and Israel's perspective, it would be great if the attacks on the ayatollahs could lead to regime change, but that didn't happen and it wasn't very likely. Iran is very different from Venezuela. In Venezuela, Maduro and his wife were removed, and suddenly the rest of the government seemed acceptable. Such a scenario is very unlikely in Iran.
At the same time, the conflict in Gaza remains unresolved - despite the ceasefire. Are you still mediating between Hamas and the White House?
Baba: Yes. People tell me: “We are still living in tents. There is no food, no work, no adequate medical care. It's like we're still at war.
The American side says: “We take care of everything“. Then I asked the Palestinian side again and they told me: “Nobody takes care of anything“.
I participated as a mediator in the negotiations. We reached a truce that Israel violates daily.
Author: Isabelle Shayani ARD