Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
The finale is the roughest part of any election campaign. This week will show whether the maxim that compromising material, aggression and online activity increase in the last days before the vote will be confirmed.
Whatever appears by Friday, April 17 - because Saturday is a day for reflection - will be the last thing the voter will remember. The campaign can hardly be called bright and impressive, except for attacks between individual political leaders in its second half - at the expense of missing leadership debates.
Keeping up with the hard cores
It seems that the goal is to mobilize the hard cores, and political forces without such - such as the supposed winner "Progressive Bulgaria", are shooting in all directions. There is no competition of ideas and visions, the final is a competition of mobilization and noise.
Only three months ago, after the protest wave last December, it seemed that voter turnout would be high. Sociological polls in March showed that about 3 million citizens were ready to go to the polls, which means almost half of the voters. Whether this momentum is maintained will be shown by the latest surveys this week, which will give the clearest indication of the results of the vote on April 19.
In the last parliamentary elections in October 2024, just over 2.5 million people voted, and the integrity of the elections was marred by violations of all kinds - tampering, adding ballots, substitutions, etc., which led to their partial invalidation.
What could enthuse or anger citizens to get them to vote?
Catalysts - "now or never", a new player…
The history of elections shows that turnout is enhanced by the same factors. For example, a sense of decisive choice and strong confrontation, as was the case now in Hungary, where turnout on April 12 reached record levels, exceeding 74%. The stakes there were high - "now or never". Viktor Orbán and his "Fidesz", who had been in power for 16 years, lost to Peter Magyar and his "Tisa".
In addition to the fatefulness of the elections, strong emotions also have an impact - especially hope and confidence in the emergence of a new player - as happened in Bulgaria in 2021, when Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha's NMSV secured 120 deputies. Only one parliamentary mandate separated them from the absolute majority, and this result is the highest so far after the democratic changes.
A similar wave was predicted for Rumen Radev after he left the presidential institution in January. But the "royal effect" is unlikely to be repeated. The essential difference is in the team. Saxe-Coburg-Gotha presents itself with young, successful Bulgarians abroad, and the combination of the crown and the yuppie turned out to be an irresistible temptation for the voter. Radev is surrounded by his former ministers from the service cabinets, who do not arouse much enthusiasm, rather creating a feeling of deja vu. And even after his two presidential terms, he can hardly be perceived as a new player in politics.
Gasoline in the campaign
The service government remains a factor that can energize the campaign. Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov and Ministers of Justice and Interior Andrey Yankulov and Emil Dechev are acting in accordance with key demands of the December protests - guaranteeing fair elections and the removal of Borislav Sarafov as Acting Prosecutor General. The Ministry of Interior daily reveals schemes for bought and controlled votes. And Yankulov is consistent in his efforts to change the acting chief prosecutor, cemented in his chair by the prosecutor's college - despite the decision of the Constitutional Court.
The fierce attacks and compromising material against Dechev, acting chief secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Georgi Kandev and Yankulov could also become an additional catalyst for the vote, as they exacerbate the clash between the declared will for change and political and behind-the-scenes pressure.
A debate between the leaders of the formations with a chance for the 52nd parliament could give new impetus to the campaign, dominated by interviews in a comfortable environment and one-way statements. However, the political culture in Bulgaria remains far from this practice - here it is more likely to rely on controlled communication, rather than direct confrontation.
Public debates can change attitudes on the fly. A classic example is the televised debate in the United States on September 26, 1960, between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy, watched by over 60 million people. Immediately afterwards, Kennedy came out ahead in the polls, albeit by a small margin, and won the election by less than 1% margin.
If there is no faith, why not disgust
If the great hopes for change do not materialize, disgust may take their place. In the last days of the campaign, it is precisely this that may be unleashed by leaks of compromising material - such as speculations surrounding the "Petrohan-Okolchitsa" case. There is already a heating up for the possible release of data on visits by specific politicians to the private chalet where the bodies of three of the residents were found, and a few days later in the Vratsa Balkan - the bodies of the remaining three.
Such revelations rarely remain without effect - they either repel some of the voters or push them to vote "against".
In the end, the vote will be decided not by the best argument, but by the strongest impulse - whether this will be hope, fear or disgust, will become clear in these last days.