Comment by Dirk Emmerich:
The negotiations between Washington and Tehran - at least for now - are considered to have failed and have been followed by new threats. Donald Trump is once again determined to "send the ayatollahs to hell" and is now blocking the Strait of Hormuz himself. Much of what the American president says is highly contradictory. It is obvious that he is on the defensive and acting like a man who is increasingly losing control of the situation.
Meanwhile, European politics continues to wander without a plan and goal - and the German Chancellor is no exception. After some initial hesitation, Berlin has nevertheless decided to clearly distance itself from Trump. This is "not our war", said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Trump himself, however, attributed these words to Chancellor Friedrich Merz. And his position is that Berlin is ready to participate in ensuring security in the Strait of Hormuz only after the end of hostilities.
Why not now? At the beginning of the week, the price of oil again exceeded the threshold of $ 100 per barrel. Germany feels this directly and must prepare for another year without visible economic growth - if it achieves any growth at all.
Let's get out of the role of offended bystander
It is absolutely true that NATO did not start the war against Iran. Germany would even have tried to prevent it if they had been asked. It is also true that starting the war was a gross violation of international law. It was important to say this out loud. But six weeks after the start of the war, Germany must think about how to deal with the consequences - and how to get out of this situation.
The new alienation from Donald Trump only complicates the task. In Germany, people remember well the times of Chancellor Angela Merkel, whom Trump frankly disliked. The fact that old fault lines are re-emerging could have long-term consequences. Americans not only feel abandoned by Europe and Germany, but also use this as an excuse to once again question the transatlantic partnership. And Trump has floated the idea of the US leaving NATO and partially withdrawing US troops from Germany.
There are also voices who say: Well, what's wrong with that? In my circle of friends, some go even further and suggest that we should not wait, but act ourselves - to exclude the US from NATO. After all, NATO is a defensive alliance, and what is happening in Iran has nothing to do with defense. Trump, they say, is the same war criminal as Putin.
But apart from the moral self-justification - that Trump should not be allowed to get away with it - such an approach does not help in any way to deal with the consequences of the war. Germany and Europe must get out of the role of offended spectators. Any crack in NATO, and even more so its split, would seriously shake the already fragile geostrategic balance in the world. Europe may have theoretically realized that in the future it will have to provide for its own defense without the United States - something that it is not yet capable of doing. We may not like this, but it is the reality.
Furthermore, if NATO collapses, it will have long-term consequences for Ukraine. Last year, Trump reduced support for Kiev to a minimum. Together with Putin, he has been holding Zelensky in a tight grip for several weeks now, trying to force him to agree to an imposed peace and give up the entire Donbas. If now, in retaliation for the lack of European support in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump declares that the war in Ukraine is also "no longer his war", the entire financial and military burden will fall on Europe. Moreover: since the positions of Washington and Moscow on ending the war are now almost the same, the two largest nuclear powers will find themselves on one side, and (the remnants of) NATO - on the other. This will be a nightmare scenario, and the Kremlin will be able to rejoice.
Moralization without real action does not work
Europe must take all this into account. All the blame for what is happening in the Alliance can be thrown entirely on Trump, but this will not help to break the deadlock - especially since Europe is still mired in the thinking of the 1990s and 2000s and hopes for a global triumph of liberal democracy based on international law. Such a position only deepens the dilemma and leads to isolation.
No one is waiting for Europe anymore. This does not help either Ukraine, because the Europeans do not have (and do not seek) ways of communication with Putin, or the Iran war - especially since the two conflicts are closely linked. To view them as completely isolated from each other, as has been done in recent weeks, was and remains irresponsible.
If Europe claims the role of a global power or wants to become one, it must offer its own initiatives. For example, it is not too late to offer a deal to Donald Trump: we help unblock the Strait of Hormuz, and you return to a sensible policy towards Ukraine. This would most directly correspond to the interests of Germany and Europe.
Ultimately, inaction has the same price as action. Europe and Germany must be aware of this clearly in today's times. Those who have a plan for how to protect their own interests are taken seriously. And those who only lecture, threaten and criticize are ignored.