Nikita SHENDEROVSKI, UNIAN
On April 19, parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria. The party of former President Rumen Radev, “Progressive Bulgaria“, won with 44% of the vote. According to various estimates, this number will be enough to create a single majority and independently form a government.
Given that Radev is a well-known Eurosceptic, who is also considered a pro-Russian politician, such a success of his party in the parliamentary elections is already being called "Kremlin's revenge in Europe". After all, the previous “protege“ of Russia, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, can only be called “former“, and in Moscow, after the announcement of the results of the elections in Bulgaria, they have already stated that Russia is impressed by the statements of the future prime minister...
But is Radev really equal to Orban?
To begin with, it is worth understanding that the current elections in Bulgaria were early (like many times before). And they were held after the mass protests that swept the country last year. Bulgarian citizens took to the streets against corruption and the economic policy of the previous government. Radev, then still in the status of president, supported these protests and during the election campaign promised to put an end to instability.
Why did the president want to go to parliament and retain the opportunity to become prime minister?
The thing is that Bulgaria is a parliamentary republic. So, all the power belongs to the prime minister and his cabinet.
„In Bulgaria, eight election campaigns have been held in the last five years.“ This is a kind of „Weimar syndrome“ of unstable parliamentary democracy.” And this problem, although not always, quite often leads to a demand from voters for a „strong hand“ to „restore order“, – draws attention to the chairman of the board of directors of the Center for Applied Political Research „Penta“ Volodymyr Fesenko. – That is why General Rumen Radev left the post of president prematurely and claimed the status of prime minister. And Bulgarian voters voted first of all for him, and then for his party.“
According to Fesenko, „Progressive Bulgaria“ Radev was created in a hurry and is more of a coalition in support of a charismatic leader than a powerful political force. In addition, the entire campaign is built on criticism of the “predecessors“ and promises that citizens wanted to hear – without specifics. Given this, it is far from a fact that the new government will be more stable than the previous one.
“It is far from a fact that the new Bulgarian government will be stable. For a long time, the country's parliament could not form a working government. Now it is assumed that it will become a one-party government and will provide appropriate stability. However, a one-party government is also a huge responsibility. Radev went to the elections with populist slogans, everyone will expect that he will quickly change everything. However, he will most likely not succeed“, says the political scientist, lecturer at the KNU “Taras Shevchenko“ Petro Oleshchuk.
Although many are now comparing Bulgaria's Rumen Radev with Hungary's Viktor Orban, these politicians may be similar in populist slogans, but not in behavior.
First, Radev behaves much more cautiously than Orban. He is a Eurosceptic, but does not publicly declare open support for Russia.
Second, he also does not make loud anti-Ukrainian statements, but says that Bulgaria can become a kind of mediator in resolving some issues between Russia and Europe.
Third, the main difference between Radev and Orban lies in the scale of power. The former Hungarian prime minister managed to build all the verticals around his political power for two decades - from power to the media. Radev does not have this, he is not even close.
„I do not think that Radev will become the second Orban. Orban's peculiarity is not even that he was pro-Russian. He was actually the monopoly ruler of Hungary, controlled the legislative branch, had a constitutional majority, changed everything as he wanted and felt that, as they say, he had the power and no one could challenge him“, – says Oleszczuk.
According to him, it is more correct to compare Radev not with Viktor Orban, but with other European politicians with whom Ukraine finds it difficult to cooperate. In particular, Fico in Slovakia or Babis in the Czech Republic.
„They are also perceived as pro-Russian. But it cannot be said that they are so radically against any decisions made in the European Union. Therefore, everything here will depend on many circumstances. „The EU has tools to influence the Bulgarian authorities, namely money. Therefore, we should not expect that we will have a new Orban in Bulgaria“, the expert adds.
Bulgaria's dependence on EU money plays into the hands of Ukraine. Kiev can use its influence in the EU to continue working with Sofia on mutually beneficial terms.
For example, Bulgaria is an important supplier of ammunition to Ukraine (it does this not directly, but through third parties). Radev has previously repeatedly stated that he opposes such cooperation. However, it is worth understanding that military companies earn money from contracts and, as in any country, have influence on politics. So it is far from a fact that Radev will really oppose such cooperation in some way, not just in words.
„The military-technical lobby of Bulgaria actively cooperates with Ukraine. For them, this was a priority area. And we see an example with the same Fico, who makes constant anti-Ukrainian statements and even plans to go to Moscow, but at the same time, military-technical cooperation between Ukraine and Slovakia has not disappeared. They continue to sell us weapons“, – explains Petro Oleshchuk.
For example, the Bulgarian VMZ plant closely cooperates with the German defense concern Rheinmetall. Last year, the Germans announced the creation of a joint venture with the Bulgarians. And the size of the investment of approximately one billion euros – is a serious argument to turn a blind eye to the fact that some of the produced shells will go not to NATO, but to Ukraine.
At the same time, we should not forget that this entire part of Eastern Europe - from Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary and Moldova - is a sphere of interest of the Russian Federation (at least the Russians are trying to demonstrate this). The Kremlin perceives this region as its zone of influence, which it supposedly inherited from the USSR. Therefore, it is not surprising that any politician with the slightest pro-Russian views receives support from Moscow and gradually gains weight.
Does Europe understand this? Absolutely. In Romania, the presidential elections in 2024 were canceled due to alleged Russian interference. Will the Russian Federation increase its influence in the region against the backdrop of the victory of the Eurosceptic Radev in Bulgaria? Unlikely.
„We see how Russia is quite actively working in the entire region of the former Warsaw Bloc. Moscow actively uses both the relevant moods in society and agents to bring politicians close to it to power. However, we do not see a system in this matter. In some countries such politicians come to power, in others they lose it,“ notes Petro Oleshchuk.
Moscow would really like to have such support in the region that it considers “historically its“. But in practice this desire is very far from the truth. On the one hand, because even the victory of a “pro-Russian“ politician does not mean full support for Russia, Russian “values“ and the Russian vision of the world order on the part of the citizens of these countries. On the other hand, citizens vote for “pro-Russian“ politicians not because they offer to be friends with Russia, but because they are promised quick populist solutions. And if the promises remain promises and there are no results, then, obviously, there will be a ninth election campaign in five years.