Is it possible that after today's elections, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will go their own way? For example, towards the EU, abandoning England?
Is it possible for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland to go their own way - even towards the European Union, abandoning England?
The breakup of the United Kingdom is complicated
Although there is a lot of noise about the topic, experts warn against rushing. Neither Wales nor Scotland are close to Brussels. "In Scotland, there is simply not enough support for another independence referendum, but even that would have to be allowed by the British government. And in Wales, there is more dissatisfaction with the Labour government in London than a desire to separate from the United Kingdom," says Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London.
According to Tony Travers of the London School of Economics, there is also no similar sentiment in Wales, and Scottish nationalists are cautious. Having failed in the 2014 referendum, they want to avoid risking another potential failure too soon, the expert says.
In Northern Ireland, the republican party "Sinn Fein", which is the largest political force there, remains adamant that they want a united Ireland. However, under the terms of the Belfast Agreement, such a step would require a referendum on both sides of the border, in which a majority of citizens in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland agree to unification. "Sinn Fein" has not yet insisted on such a referendum.
Political discontent is growing
Despite all this, political turmoil is present and the predicted victories of the nationalists are a serious challenge for the British government. This is a reflection of the general dissatisfaction with the traditional parties - Labour and the Conservatives. For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, these elections could turn out to be a real disaster. In addition to the Scottish, Northern Irish and Welsh parliaments, local elections are also being held. Labour could suffer serious losses in these elections - around 2,000 of the party's representatives are expected to lose their local government seats.
Starmer's approval ratings have plummeted since his election victory less than two years ago. According to a recent poll, Britons describe him as a "bad" or even "terrible" prime minister. He has failed to convince voters that he is the right person to deliver the change he promised. The economy is stagnant, there is no growth, and the crisis continues to deepen. At the same time, the political landscape is becoming increasingly crowded and unstable. In addition to nationalists, smaller rebel parties - such as the self-proclaimed "eco-populists" Greens and Nigel Farage's right-wing populist "Reform UK" party.
Farage threatens Trumpist tactics and wins support
The Greens are supporters of a progressive tax and hope to win city councils - they are very popular with younger voters. At the same time, Farage's party enjoys support from those worried about migration. It promises to "deport all illegal immigrants" with methods borrowed from the Donald Trump administration in the United States. From "Reform UK" they even promise to build Trump-style internment camps in areas that voted for the Greens.
The latest polls show that Farage's party enjoys the highest approval ratings at the moment, even in places that previously voted mostly for the Labour Party - working-class regions in central and northern England.
Will Starmer be able to hold on
For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, this election could be a fight for survival. Many MPs are already questioning whether he is the right person to stay in power until the next election. "The size of the losses now will determine whether Starmer remains prime minister," says Tony Travers.
These turbulences continue to loom under the long shadow of Brexit. The vote to leave the EU a decade ago is key to understanding the fragmentation and instability of British politics today. This has given new impetus to the independence movements - Brexit is unpopular with the public, and the prospect of rejoining the EU is attractive to a significant number of people.
At the same time, Brexit has also legitimized much more radical choices, Travers believes. "It gave people the freedom to think they could vote for something that had real consequences. It was also a sign of disillusionment with traditional politics. And it convinced some that their vote could attract attention - in a way that voting Labour or Conservative never did."
Is Britain breaking up? No, not yet. But it is certain that in a more unstable and politically fragmented situation, the country will be harder to govern than it was a decade ago.