The German media is speculating about a possible replacement of Chancellor Merz due to the record collapse of trust in him and his government. According to some reports, changes are possible in the coming months.
Germany is unrecognizable. One year after Friedrich Merz took office as head of a government of conservatives and social democrats, in the last days of May, the front pages of newspapers and television political programs are discussing the possibility of his resignation. In the recent history of the Federal Republic of Germany, at least in the last quarter of a century, there has been nothing like this. It is unusual both that rumors are actually being discussed and that Merz does not ignore them, but makes excuses – says he has no intention of resigning, but wants to serve out his term to the end.
It is also strange that the discussion began not after, but before the important provincial elections planned for September in the eastern part of the country. Their approach is causing, if not panic, then increasingly noticeable nervousness in political circles in Berlin. In the elections for the Landtag in the province of Saxony-Anhalt, the opposition far-right party “Alternative for Germany“ (AfG) may come to power for the first time. The current discussion about changing the government or the chancellor is further weakening the parties in the ruling coalition. What is going on?
Wüst instead of Merz?
The discussion was sparked by press reports that the conservative leadership was considering a minority government, i.e. without the Social Democrats, or to replace the 70-year-old Merz with a more popular and younger person - for example, the Premier of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst, who is 50.
There has been talk for a long time that Wüst, who heads a government of conservatives and greens in the most populous federal state, wants to become chancellor. Other politicians also have a similar desire, but Wüst is believed to have a better chance. He is perceived as a less conflict-free and less controversial person than some others. Wüst himself emphasizes his loyalty to Merz and says that he is not preparing for Berlin for now, but hopes to be re-elected in 2027.
The rumors about Merz's replacement appeared against the background of a sharp decline in the rating of both the federal government and the chancellor himself and his party bloc in April. The CDU-CSU have lost their top spot in the polls and have been replaced by the far-right opposition AfD party (23 and 28 percent support, respectively). Three-quarters of Germans are dissatisfied with the government's performance. There is no sign of a change in the trend, although the increase in the distance between the CDU-CSU and the AfD has slowed down. The main reason for the decline in the rating is the persistent stagnation in the economy and the general situation with the increase in the price of goods and services, fuel and rents against the background of job cuts.
Doubts that the Merz government would serve a full term appeared more than a year ago - on May 6, 2025, when the chancellor was elected to the Bundestag only on his second attempt. Although the ruling parties were full of optimism at the time and promised stability after the early elections.
Why the government's resignation is unlikely for now
For a while, the doubts subsided, but now they are a fact again. At the end of April, the conservative newspaper “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung“, close to the CDU, wrote that this coalition was no longer salvageable. The main thesis: Even if it completes its mandate, the government will not be able to achieve anything significant, because the parties are blocking each other and instead of deep reforms, the coalition is adopting tortured compromise bills.
In the weeks before the summer vacation, which begins in mid-July, the Merz government plans to adopt or at least begin preparing several important reforms, including the one already approved by the cabinet in the health insurance sector. But many of these reforms are considered painful, which is why they are unlikely to increase the government's popularity. Could this summer be Merz's last as chancellor?
The majority of Berlin analysts do not believe that the government will fall apart. Their argument: a minority government would be too risky against the backdrop of the rise of the "Alternative for Germany". There has been no such precedent at the federal level, and Merz's replacement would require the consent of the chancellor himself, which is currently lacking. There are experts who believe that, as an impulsive person, Merz could leave on his own. In that case, he would have to request a vote of confidence from the Bundestag.
Theoretically, this vote may not pass - the coalition has only 12 votes more than the opposition. But now the option of a soft change of power, i.e. reformatting the coalition or changing the leader, is being discussed more.
For now, everything remains in the realm of speculation. But even if this happens, it will not be before the state elections in September. In any case, however, changes are expected in Berlin, the media also write.