The ongoing Israeli offensive against Lebanon is becoming an increasingly big problem for Donald Trump, who is trying to reach a truce with Iran. What interests are involved there and what role does Trump play.
Tehran initially announced that it was ending all negotiations with Washington until the clashes with the pro-Iranian Hezbollah group stopped. But US President Donald Trump said that this was not true. The negotiations were continuing at a rapid pace. According to him, both sides - Israel and the terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon - agreed to stop fighting each other after a conversation with Netanyahu, which, according to CNN sources, was extremely tense. Axios sources even say that Trump called Netanyahu "crazy" and told him: "You'd be in jail if it weren't for me."
Today, Iranian state media reported that the talks are continuing. However, clashes broke out between Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Forces that night.
Are there any negotiations at all?
The negotiations are being held between intermediaries such as Pakistan and Qatar, while Israelis, Lebanese and Americans are talking in Washington, claims journalist and expert on Islamic and Arab affairs Daniel Gerlach. However, the mixed messages are coming from both sides. "There are different forces in Iran that are communicating different things," he explains to ARD. "The Revolutionary Guards' news agency is maintaining a different tone and spreading different news from the Iranian foreign minister," Gerlach added.
According to him, the information chaos also comes from Washington. "Trump said that Israel had assured him that it would not send troops to Beirut. But there was no question of troops in Beirut at all. It was about airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut. Netanyahu had announced that he would carry out such strikes," says the expert, who predicts that public information will continue to be so unclear in the coming weeks.
The Israeli army has entered very deep into Lebanese territory - something that has not happened since 2000. Iran has already made what is happening there a leading condition for negotiations with the United States, Gerlach told ARD. "Iran wants to say: “We are able to dictate the terms. And we are able to make agreements with the Americans across the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf."
At the same time, Trump is trying to end the war, from which he draws negatives domestically. “Trump seems to feel under great pressure. He has already announced that he has convinced Israel to stop its offensive. However, this does not say anything about the situation in southern Lebanon," the expert commented.
Hezbollah is in a better position
“I think the Netanyahu government wants to create a permanent occupation zone in southern Lebanon, similar to the one in the 1990s. Netanyahu's great rival in Israeli politics - former Prime Minister Ehud Barak - withdrew from Lebanon in 2000 and ended the occupation. "I think Netanyahu thinks it was a mistake he wants to correct," the journalist and editor-in-chief of Zenit magazine said.
In his analysis, the New York Times' Jerusalem correspondent David Halbfinger wrote that Hezbollah now appears far more capable than it was at the beginning of the clashes with Israel. "Israel's strategy was to seize territory in Lebanon as a defensive buffer and push Hezbollah out of range of its anti-tank missiles, with which it has long harassed tens of thousands of civilians living in northern Israel," he noted. “But Israel was clearly not prepared for Hezbollah's large-scale use of drones, which are controlled via fiber optic cables and are immune to electronic jamming.”
Daniel Gerlach does not believe that Trump is negotiating directly with Hezbollah, as the US president claims. “I assume that the negotiations were conducted through a very famous and also dubious Lebanese politician - Nabih Berri.” Berri is a Shiite and has been the speaker of the parliament in Beirut since 1992. He has been repeatedly accused of corruption and abuse. “He acted as a guarantor and has often negotiated with Hezbollah in the past. "His representative is also currently in Qatar," the journalist added.
Can both the US and Israel achieve their goals?
Many, including Gerlach, are skeptical that a ceasefire will be reached, because similar reports have been circulating more than once before. "The Israeli leadership wants to destroy Hezbollah and is not willing to compromise on this, and Hezbollah is fighting for its political and military survival."
Israel began this military conflict against Hezbollah with the bold promise to change the situation in Lebanon "once and for all," writes the "New York Times." But that would now mean conquering all of Lebanon - something the United States cannot allow.