There is a piece of news that has passed quickly, but in fact it may be one of the most important to emerge from Europe in the past few days.
The German army inspector and other senior military officials in Germany have issued statements demanding clarifications from the United States about its future military plans, at a time when Europe is experiencing its largest arms buildup since the end of the Cold War.
The question here is: Has Europe really become afraid and worried about Russia, or has Europe become afraid and worried about America itself?
In fact, what is happening is much bigger than just fear and anxiety about Russia, especially since the United States has started sending very clear messages to its European allies, announcing the withdrawal of thousands of American troops from Germany, and there are also reports of a reduction in some military assets at American military bases that were provided to NATO, at a time when the focus of American attention is on China and the Asian region.
For the first time in 80 years, Europeans are hearing a clear American message that it is time to take responsibility for their own independence, and that is why we have seen Germany, France, Poland and the Baltic states enter a very large arms race.
While Europe is rearming, something considered dangerous by many observers has happened: a Russian drone entered Romanian territory and crashed into a residential building near the Ukrainian border.
Romania is a NATO member state, a fact that observers have taken as a Russian message, especially after Dmitry Medvedev's direct and shocking statements to Europe, where he declared, “ Get ready for more incidents than those in Romania and you won't be able to sleep peacefully“, Medvedev is considered by many analysts to be the man who makes statements that the Kremlin wants to make through unofficial channels.
The danger of these statements is that they do not reflect a political quarrel or a political threat, but rather a Russian message of deterrence, through which Russia wants to tell the Europeans: “Since you continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, equipment, information and military support, for us you are explicitly a party to the war and therefore the consequences of this war will not remain only in Ukraine, but will spread to other countries.“
It is here that the real anxiety in Europe began, because the Europeans see a very important scene before them. While Russia is announcing new threats and that the war could spread to Europe, on the other hand, America itself, which is Europe's biggest ally, is gradually reducing its forces and military presence in Europe, in addition to demanding that Europeans take responsibility for their own security, this has led Germany, France and even Belgium to ask themselves: What will happen if Russia launches an attack on Europe in a year or two? Will the United States intervene with force, as it has done in the past, or will Europe be alone in a future confrontation with Russia? And is what is happening simply American punishment of Europe for not complying with the war against Iran or for not participating in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by force, or is it a real American strategy to abandon Europe?
To answer these questions clearly, Germany has demanded direct and explicit explanations from the United States, because this is not just a query or clarification, but an existential question for Europe. Is America still as committed to defending Europe as it is, or is Europe facing a strategic shift and is America actually contributing to its weakening?
Many observers believe that Europeans have been aware of this scenario since the beginning of the American military strategy against Iran, during which the American tone has risen with the need for Europeans to pay more money, for America to reallocate its forces, and for the United States to prioritize China first, while recognizing that Russia still has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. It has presented them with a scene they have not seen in decades: factories, heavy munitions, nuclear weapons, billions of euros in arms contracts, increased air defenses, increased numbers of soldiers, conscription, changes in conscription laws, and the transformation of entire economies in Europe into vehicles for long-term military readiness.
Germany has begun discussing building the largest conventional army in Europe, France is touting itself as Europe’s new nuclear umbrella capable of defending the continent, and Poland is rapidly becoming one of the major military powers in Eastern Europe. We are beginning to see a strange paradox:
Europe, which until recently was constantly discussing green energy, climate protection, digital transformation, and clean energy, is now talking about tanks, missiles, gunpowder, and defense industries. This reflects the scale of the change that is taking place in European thinking.
The real problem, therefore, is not that Europe is preparing for war with Russia, but rather that Europe has begun to prepare for the fact that in the afterlife, America will be less committed to protecting Europeans than it has been since the end of World War II.