Russia invades Ukraine, Israel and the US attack Iran, civil wars rage in Africa: researchers warn of the impending collapse of the rules-based international order.
"Warlord" (in Bulgarian: "войнолюбец") is a term that was used in the 1990s in connection with the civil wars in Liberia, Afghanistan and Somalia. It refers to individuals who wage wars to enforce their own interests - including at the cost of eroding entire countries. The new Peace Report 2026 (an annual expert assessment by German conflict researchers) examines the return of such figures in the 21st century.
Are Putin, Trump and Netanyahu warmongers?
"The new warlords are undermining the international order," said Konrad Schetter of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Research (BICC) at the presentation of the report on Monday in Berlin. The researcher also named a number of such leaders, including those of the presidents of Russia and the United States - Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump - and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The accusation against them is that the use of military force is their preferred means of enforcing their own interests - with complete disregard for international law.
"Putin has unleashed an aggressive war against Ukraine, which has entered its fifth year. His goal is to make his vision of a restored Great Russian Empire a reality," the document emphasizes. Donald Trump, in his inaugural speech as US president, declared his intention to make America great again and has since "threatened both allies and adversaries with the use of force - often resorting to it to advance his interests," the report's authors state.
According to the study, this also applies to countries such as Israel, Turkey and several Persian Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates). "These countries are increasingly behaving like traditional nation-states and increasingly - as imperial players, expanding their spheres of influence and selectively instrumentalizing international norms in their own interests," the report notes.
Is war becoming a normal political instrument?
"War is once again presenting itself as a normal means of exercising power, with the help of which interests can be promoted", emphasized Nicole Deitelhoff of the Frankfurt Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research (PRIF). These interests are not directed towards the common good, but are of a personal nature or pursue the goal of obtaining benefits, she added, recalling that for years the Peace Report has warned of the impending collapse of the rules-based international order. Now that moment has come. "We are in the process of this collapse", the expert states.
The researchers recommend that Germany and the European Union (EU) reduce their dependence on the United States in the field of defense and armaments. In addition, Berlin should "consistently point out" violations of the rules.
"The failure of Germany's candidacy for a seat on the UN Security Council should be a warning signal", states Schetter. Deitelhoff also believes that this "is certainly also due to the fact that in recent years Germany has often fallen behind when it comes to defending international law".
What does Friedrich Merz understand by international law?
With this, she hints that Chancellor Friedrich Merz, unlike other countries, has not unequivocally defined the kidnapping of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by the US armed forces as a violation of international law. Instead, the German chancellor said that "the legal qualification of the American operation is complicated".
Even after the US and Israeli attack on Iran, Merz refrained from unequivocal support for international law. "Now is not the time to lecture our partners and allies", the chancellor said at the start of the war. When the two countries bombed Iran's nuclear program in 2025, Merz justified the action by saying: The Israelis had done "the dirty work, and for all of us".