The US and Iran signed a declaration of intent ahead of schedule as a first step towards establishing peace. But many uncertainties remain - for example, in relation to the Iranian nuclear program. What is known so far and what is expected.
The agreement between the US and Iran to end the war should enter into force immediately - after US President Donald Trump signed it in Versailles, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian did the same in Tehran. However, many questions remain open, writes ARD.
Agreement, declaration or peace?
First of all, the signed document is “only” a declaration of intent, the so-called memorandum of understanding, the German public media indicates. It sets out the framework conditions under which Iran and the US must reach a final agreement within 60 days.
The declaration is not binding in international law - this would only be the final peace agreement. During the G7 meeting, Trump once again stressed that if Iran "does not behave properly", it could be bombed again. And other changes could also occur.
What exactly does the agreement say?
In the meantime, the two sides have announced the text of the agreement, but the two versions differ on some details - such as with regard to military actions in Lebanon, ARD notes. The document contains 14 points in total.
From the very beginning, the goal is explicitly set as "an immediate and lasting end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon". Both sides, as well as their allies, must refrain from further military action.
The lifting of mutual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz is also clearly regulated. Within 30 days of signing, Iran should remove the naval mines placed in the strait. The US, for its part, must lift not only the blockade on shipping, but also lift sanctions on the Iranian fuel trade.
What is not included in the agreement?
However, there are a number of areas that the declaration does not regulate or does not regulate specifically, the German public media emphasizes. For example, there is no explicit mention of Iran's demand for future fees to be collected from ships passing through the strait. Payments will only not be required during a period of 60 days during which negotiations continue. Iran must discuss future rules with Oman and in dialogue with other neighboring Persian Gulf states.
Israel's role also remains unclear. The framework agreement provides for an end to the war in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Hezbollah, and obliges all "allies" of the United States and Iran to comply with it. Iran is demanding that Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon, parts of which have been occupied since March. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, however, has ruled out such a move in the foreseeable future. The pro-Iranian Hezbollah has said it will resist Israel "until its complete withdrawal."
If the situation in Lebanon escalates again, it could derail the US-Iran agreement - unless both sides deter their respective allies from attacking each other. This also applies to Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip - Hamas is also among Iran's allies, ARD notes.
All of this also has domestic political components in Israel itself, as parliamentary elections are coming up and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may take a risky independent step against the backdrop of widespread dissatisfaction with the agreement.
What will happen to the nuclear program?
The issues related to the Iranian nuclear program are almost entirely spared. In the agreement, the Islamic Republic reiterates its official position that it will never produce nuclear weapons. As a minimum, the dilution of the stored highly enriched uranium under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is proposed.
According to CNN, this addition did not appear in an earlier draft agreed upon by US President Trump and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The following aspects, however, must be clarified in the final declaration, but the 60-day period seems not long enough for this, the German public media outlet points out. It cites the portal “Politico“, which reports, citing American sources, that behind the scenes Iran has already made larger concessions regarding its nuclear program.
What will happen to Iran's missile arsenal?
The document does not include the demands made by the US before the war broke out. As ARD recalls, the Trump administration had stated that the military goals set included destroying Iran's missile arsenal, ending its support for militias in the region, destroying Iran's navy, and ensuring that the country never acquires nuclear weapons.
The seven-week US and Israeli bombing campaign is believed to have seriously damaged Iran's missile arsenal and production facilities. However, last week, Iran again fired missiles at Israel. Iran's ties with its allies in the region - Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq - have been strained. seem stronger than ever, writes the German public media.
Who can claim what successes?
By the start of the war on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for international fuel trade, was open. In response to attacks by the US and Israel, Tehran blocked it almost completely and may now tie its opening to demands for concessions.
The lifting of oil sanctions against Iran as part of the next negotiations could provide the country with solid additional income. The end of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would allow the leadership in Tehran, for example, to restore the interrupted supply chains. And if oil and gas start flowing from the Persian Gulf again, this would bring relief not only to the US government, but also internationally.
What will happen from now on?
The "Memorandum of Understanding" is to be officially signed tomorrow in Switzerland. The question, however, is whether the previously agreed meeting between the two sides will actually take place – there is no reliable information in this regard. According to ARD, Iran considers the meeting unnecessary, while the US and mediators Pakistan and Qatar continue to insist on it as a first step towards negotiations.