The NATO summit in Ankara is over. The consequences are in order. Some, like Prof. Davutoğlu, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Turkey, are asking themselves "but what are we protecting with NATO", another is enthused with "Zelensky-the hero of Ankara", and a number of observers are convinced that "the cracks in NATO have come to light and the so-called commitments from last year's summit in The Hague were simply repeated."
Added only with a point on "preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz". In practice, "NATO is in disarray, but under a common roof". Because before and during the meeting in Ankara itself, and with the naked eye, the frantic efforts to convince the public that "NATO is restructuring, entering the era of "NATO 3.0" and building the future in a modernized alliance with "a stronger Europe within a stronger NATO" were clearly visible. The allies in Europe and Canada, together with the United States, are taking on greater responsibility in defending the alliance. Unity is unanimously supported, Rutte reported.
That Rutte, who, when asked by a journalist from Denmark "whether he has any self-respect left after your behavior towards Trump" turned his back and did not answer. Not a word about Greenland, the accusations against Sanchez and Meloni, and the trade wars waged by the American president. The fact is, however, that this time he did not allow himself to call Trump "daddy", which did not stop the criticism of humiliating vassalage. After so many efforts to ensure Trump's presence at this summit in Ankara, to the delight of Erdogan, and to prevent the hegemon from being irritated and deciding to leave suddenly, as at last year's G-7 meeting in Canada, Rutte could not have been more measured in his statements.
Trump must ensure that the US remains in NATO, in Europe, to guarantee support for Ukraine again and to secure the future of the Alliance by designating an enemy in the face of the aggressor Russia. The money will be European. The goal has been achieved - the enemy, i.e. Russia, is in point 2 of the final joint declaration, the allies have unwavering support for Kiev in defending the "territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine", and Article 5 of the Washington Treaty is a guaranteed commitment and support for every ally. No new strategic concept was adopted, and the main goal was presented as confirming the political line agreed in The Hague and maintaining the image of unity within the Alliance.
However, the joint declaration is only one page with 6 points, while in Brussels in 2021 it was 79 points, and in Madrid in 2022 - 90 points. The picture is clear - NATO continues on its path with short declarations on which it is easier to reach agreement, instead of detailed agreements. And whether there will be a new summit in Albania in 2027 is an unanswered question at this stage. The important thing is that the goal of 5% defense spending continues and the removal of barriers to trade in defense industry products is emphasized.
It is especially important for Turkey. And here it cannot be omitted to mention that some are drawing gloomy pictures of an inevitable collapse or at least of solutions that will serve as a temporary means to cover up the deepening disagreements of recent years. Simply to maintain the common ground and cover up the crises in the Alliance. That is why Rutte says that NATO is unique in the world and is a defense alliance. It has not attacked anyone. There is no word and no specifics about what happened in Libya, Afghanistan, not to mention Serbia.
Turkey is praised for its "generous hospitality", Erdogan has received assurances that Trump has a positive attitude towards the possibility of Ankara returning to the F-35 program, but Hegseth immediately flew from Ankara to Tel Aviv to reassure Netanyahu that a promise doesn't hurt, as they say in our country. In this regard, it is not clear why Erdogan chose to give every leader participating in the NATO summit a pistol engraved with his own name and with cartridges. So that they don't forget about rearming their armies in preparation for a new war or to have a weapon on hand for defense or suicide in case of a sudden emergency.
All of this, of course, is in the realm of jokes and banter to lighten the atmosphere among media representatives. Those who were honored to be accredited. Because Ankara denied many of its own and foreign journalists the right to attend the forum in Ankara. Which was turned into a fortified city, and hundreds of citizens were arrested to prevent protests against NATO from being organized. Well, they were organized, but without bloody clashes. It cannot be denied that Zelensky shone at the NATO summit on July 8.
Apparently a master of media messaging, he has managed to create a narrative of a turning point in the war and that "Russia is losing". He claims that Ukraine's defense sector has matured to the point where it is becoming increasingly effective. And this against the backdrop of the US returning to the ceasefire talks and promises to sharply increase support for Kiev. Based on the use this year of new and improved medium- and long-range drones, disrupting Russian logistics behind the front lines and repeatedly striking each of the Russians' 30 major oil refineries.
Causing a national energy crisis. And at the same time, Zelensky threatened to attack Belarus if Lukashenko did not turn off the relay stations along the border that were helping to guide Russian drones into northern Ukraine. They did. But Lukashenko flew to Moscow, then to Beijing. It's not nice to be between a rock and a hard place. Because it is known that Western experts, officers, are directing Ukrainian drones towards Russian territories. It is no longer hidden from both sides. But it is also becoming increasingly clear that the stones that Zelensky throws with drone attacks are still not big enough to deal a knockout blow.
The reality is not rosy. And the reality on the battlefield does not confirm it. Especially after the fall of Konstantinovka. Whatever else Zelensky may say. Zaluzhny in an article for "Telegraph" writes that "Russia should not be underestimated and it is not defeated". By the fall there was a real possibility that the last part of Donbass would fall. It's all in the realm of guesswork, but reports are pouring in that backstage negotiations are continuing, that Witkoff, Kushner and Dimitriev are still in the game, and the likelihood of official talks resuming in August is not small at all.
Zelensky even gave Putin a 40-day deadline to begin negotiations to stop the fighting. The time it takes for a soul to leave a dead body. Zelensky or his curators are good at these techniques. Does he realize that Trump's promise in Ankara to give him a license to produce the "Patriot" is nothing more than an empty gesture? It will take years, not to mention the difficulties of its actual approval. After 5 years, the camel is the camel, but today Ukraine has run out of interceptors, and Trump is slippery enough to rely on promises.
It is known that since Trump came to power again, the US has not sent any money to Kiev and will not give it any more. Rutte announced in Ankara that the 32 members of the Alliance have promised 70 billion euros for Ukraine, but if you read the fine print, in fact, no one has promised anything. In the increasingly dysfunctional European economy, no one has cash. Even for a tax of 0.25% of GDP for members in the eurozone, the answer was "no". Anti-Russian hawks continue to insist on continued financing of the war in Ukraine, but the answers are again "No". Kaia Kallas offered a 5 billion euro watered-down commitment, but was also rejected. The Netherlands and Finland have announced that they have run out of money for Ukraine.
Such money cost Starmer's position in the UK, and Merz's coalition in Germany looks increasingly precarious. Macron is in a disadvantageous position for the next presidential election in France. Well, at least he can't run again, but Macronism will suffer the consequences of his policies. Still, it should be noted that Putin is also in a dilemma between doves and hawks. The hopes that the European landscape will have completely changed by 2028 and that far-right, national-populist parties that want to end the war will come to power may turn out to be a tall order.
When Magyar won in Hungary, it was said that Budapest was returning to the EU, but the picture turned out not to be exactly that. Le Pen is returning to the scene, albeit condemned, and could become president of France. Trump seems to have abandoned the "pro-Putin line" and his intentions to conclude a package of business deals like Dimitriev are in the past tense. At this stage, he has definitely gone in a different direction. They say that his time is running out before the November midterm elections, and the role of the defeat in Iran brings only negatives. Playing on many fronts is an exhausting occupation and does not always bring success. Zelensky's stubbornness and resourcefulness to survive do not fit into the intentions of looking for a way out, at least in Ukraine.
Therefore, observers in the West claim that Trump, in order to reduce losses, is "trying to squeeze whatever juice is left from the orange to look good before the elections." Putin, if he was hoping for a deal, will have to wait for sanctions to be eased. If there is no turnaround in Trump's policy, Moscow will return to a grueling war and seize the entire Donbas. Then he can declare victory. But where Zelensky will be then is not at all clear. And these are the consequences of the NATO summit in Ankara. Putin was not there, but he was constantly talked about.
Ankara is proud to host this meeting, but it is doubtful whether it will receive the promised concessions from Trump, the most important guest. But Erdogan's policy towards Moscow will not change either. That much is certain. He knows how to play both ways. It is important for us to read not only between the lines, but also what is written in the small print. Emotions and narrow party interests are for more normal times.