The Democratic Party faces a dilemma. The progressive wing attracts many supporters who reject the status quo and identify as democratic socialists. But can this win them a presidential election?
In November, Democrats in the US are preparing to win a majority in at least one of the two houses of Congress, which will allow them to make the rest of Donald Trump's term in the White House much more difficult.
The midterm elections are crucial - not only because they are a chance for them to put a spoke in the wheel of the Republicans, but also because they will show in which direction the Democratic Party is heading. Back in 2015, Bernie Sanders announced that a political revolution was beginning in the United States, and although he never managed to win the presidential nomination, today the progressive wing of the Democrats seems more influential than ever.
The Michigan elections - key for the Senate and beyond
The Michigan senatorial seat is becoming vacant, and the Democrats must retain it if they want to have a chance at a majority in the upper house of Congress. The party's internal elections, which were held yesterday, were won by Abdul El Sayed - a progressive Muslim doctor supported by the left wing. Some call him “Michigan's Zohrab Mamdani”, and the mayor of New York supported his candidacy. She was supported by Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, as well as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is considered one of the leading contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
Sayed's competitor - Haley Stevens - is perceived as a representative of the establishment. She is an experienced candidate, pragmatic, friendly to Israel. She was also part of Barack Obama's team.
El-Sayed, on the other hand, is very critical of Israeli policy, insisting that the Democratic Party should also fight big concerns and their interests. "Take money out of politics, put more money in your pockets, and health care for all," was one of his campaign slogans.
Should the Democratic Party move left?
Moderate Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, supported Stevens in the Michigan primary. They said that moving too far left might win over the Democratic base, but not independents. Matt Bennett of the Third Way think tank said El-Sayed was too radical for the average Michigan voter. But Bennett, who served in the Clinton administration, said it was becoming increasingly difficult for politicians who see themselves as representing the status quo to win over voters. Michigan is also home to the largest percentage of the Arab minority in America. Many young people are also supporting him.
In addition to El Sayed, who won the primary, House candidate Donovan McKinney also defeated Sri Thanedar. McKinney is also part of the so-called progressive wing and is leading in the results. Another progressive candidate, William Lawrence, who fights the opening of so-called data centers, military supplies to Israel and supports environmental causes, universal health care and higher taxes for the wealthy, also won the nomination for Congress.
The process of nominating candidates for the key midterm elections, as well as the results of the elections themselves in November, will largely determine whether, for the first time, a candidate from the so-called progressive wing will also be able to prevail in the 2028 presidential nomination. That’s why the internal battle among Democrats is proving to be almost as contentious as the clash with Republicans for control of Congress.
Can democratic socialists win against Republicans?
In recent years, the wing around Bernie Sanders has motivated the most young activists. The Joe Biden administration was a group of about a dozen moderate Democrats trying to lead 4,000 young representatives of the progressive wing, David Brooks wrote recently in The Atlantic.
The Democratic Socialists of America are becoming an increasingly powerful political organization, fielding a number of Democratic candidates. And while their promises to work for free education and healthcare for all, often citing European countries as examples, have won the sympathy of many, others fear that their ranks have been infiltrated by communists. Some of their members question Israel's right to exist and blame NATO for Russia's aggression in Ukraine. And while these positions are not advocated by leaders of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, including Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, they are often used by Republicans and Donald Trump to paint the entire movement as communists with radical and dangerous ideas.
A recent Ipsos poll shows that while 75% of Democrats say they are ready to vote for a candidate who describes themselves as a "democratic socialist", this figure is only 10% for Republicans, and 36% for independent voters, who in most cases decide the final outcome of the vote. Republicans are so confident that the election of progressive and left-wing candidates will repel voters who are not affiliated with either party that they even actively support and finance some of their campaigns. At the same time, another survey shows that more and more Democrats are citing free healthcare, greater access to abortion and higher taxes for the wealthy as their top priorities. Restricting access to weapons and supporting Israel are also important to voters in a party that is becoming increasingly liberal.
The Democratic Party faces a major dilemma: how to use the most active and active wing of its party without alienating the voters who could ensure its victory in the next presidential election. But if candidates like Mamdani and El Sayed continue to win at the regional and state levels, this election will become a Hobson's choice.