The Ukrainian leadership and independent Russian media are talking about a possible new mobilization in Russia. The Kremlin denies it, but anxiety is growing among Russians.
The Russian authorities want to "expand the mobilization" in the fall, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, citing information from his secret services. According to them, Russian President Putin is preparing the mobilization of more fighters for the war against Ukraine.
"He is hiding his intentions, but he is preparing. It is important that we, together with our partners, exert enough pressure on Moscow so that the idea of ending the war and making peace prevails, and not a new mobilization," the Ukrainian president said. According to him, Russian units are losing more fighters on the front than they are recruiting. But Putin wanted to intensify the strikes and expand the war.
Why is it assumed that there will be mobilization in Russia?
At the end of June, the independent Russian website "Verstka" and the portal "Important Stories" published an investigation in which they revealed that due to the difficulties in recruiting soldiers in Russia, the leadership "is discussing mobilization behind the scenes". A source for "Verstka" from the Moscow City Hall reported that in April and May of this year, the city sent a little over 3,000 people to the front. And this is 1,000 fewer than in the same period last year. The trend continued in June.
The portal "Important Stories" came to the conclusion that the number of contract soldiers in Russia in the last quarter of 2025 decreased by much more than half compared to the previous year and fell as early as the beginning of 2026. In addition, from sources in various regions of Russia, journalists learned that the number of those wishing to sign a contract with the army is also decreasing there.
"Soldiers are not combat-ready"
In front of "Verstka", army sources also stated that the soldiers who signed contracts and went to the front this year were not combat-ready. Many of the newcomers were fleeing the front. The units were filled at best "between 30 and 40 percent," a soldier told reporters.
The American Institute for the Study of War reported in late July that the Kremlin was creating all the prerequisites for a new mobilization. However, experts say this would be "Putin's personal decision - depending on his assessment of the situation on the battlefield and stability in the Kremlin." Experts from the institute point out that "it remains unclear whether Putin will make such a decision in the near future and what exactly the mobilization would look like."
Recently, "Verstka" also reported that the demand for housing in Armenia by Russians has increased significantly - as in 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine began. According to the publication, the Russians wanted to leave their country before the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled to take place between September 18 and 20.
What does the Kremlin say about the possible mobilization?
Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a press conference in late July that he did not consider it necessary to comment on Zelensky's statements about a possible new mobilization wave in Russia. "It is not Zelensky's job to talk about our plans," Peskov said.
Member of the Federation Council - the upper house of the Russian parliament, Andrei Klishas, said in early summer that no new mobilization is currently being discussed in the country, and according to him, there was no need for one.
Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev described the rumors about a possible mobilization as "part of pre-election propaganda". In addition, the former Russian president claims that in the first half of 2026, about 200,000 people were recruited into the Russian army.
What would the new mobilization bring to Russia?
"Of course, the data of the Russian authorities cannot be trusted blindly. The information is adjusted to suit their goals," military expert Yan Matveev told DW in connection with Medvedev's information about the new soldiers. At the same time, Matveev emphasizes that based on the analyses of independent experts, it can be considered that the exaggeration "is not so radical" and the soldiers may be between 170,000 and 180,000 instead of 200,000.
According to him, however, the number of soldiers currently recruited is not sufficient for a military victory over Ukraine. But it would not be possible even with a new mobilization, says Matveev, adding: "The Russians would not be able to completely defeat Ukraine even by doubling the army. Although according to Putin and his officials, this is precisely their goal." Matveev believes that given the losses at the front, the capabilities of the Russian army will decrease unless a new mobilization is announced.