In today's conditions, can elections in Ukraine strengthen democracy, or vice versa - work for Russian propaganda? What do experts say?
The statement of former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov on the need to renew power in the country has sparked a discussion about the possibility of holding elections before the end of the war. But would elections in the current conditions strengthen democracy or, on the contrary, serve Russian propaganda? Here is what defense expert Roger Hilton from the Slovak analytical center GLOBSEC told DW.
DW: What, in your opinion, could the statement of former Minister Fedorov mean for Ukraine's domestic politics and its relations with international partners?
R. Hilton: In general, Fedorov raised quite legitimate questions regarding the democratic future of Ukraine, and they deserve to be discussed. But these debates should strengthen the country, not divide it. Ultimately, Ukraine will decide its political future in elections. But until that moment comes, every political player is responsible for the country getting to this stage, preserving its democratic institutions and the cohesion of society. Therefore, the main priority must remain the national interests and national unity of Ukraine.
As for the position of international partners, the decision when and how to hold elections will be a decision only for Ukraine, not for Moscow, Washington, Brussels or Ottawa. International partners can support the process, but they should not set its timeline.
DW: How realistic do you think it is to hold elections in Ukraine now, given the political circumstances and security issues?
R. Hilton: I think the democratic argument for elections should be separated from the practical question of whether they can be properly held right now. In this regard, the argument that Ukraine should consider democratic renewal is correct. It is fighting not only for sovereignty but also for its democratic identity, and maintaining political legitimacy and public trust is important in a protracted war.
At the same time, however, elections would create significant security vulnerabilities. Since Russia will most likely direct a stream of disinformation, cyber operations, influence campaigns at this process in order to undermine public trust. This risk cannot be eliminated. Therefore, the best case scenario is not to prevent every attempt at interference, but to build a sustainable electoral process that will mitigate most of these threats and support public confidence.
This makes the practical aspect of holding elections particularly important. In Ukraine, martial law continues, fighting does not stop. Accordingly, it would be very difficult to ensure the participation in free and secure elections of soldiers, displaced people and those in the zone of Russian attacks. I would not put the question like this: “Elections now or democracy later?”. Instead, the question should be what conditions need to be created for elections to be legitimate, secure and universally recognized.
The historical precedent of elections in the United States during the Civil War shows that war in itself does not make elections impossible. But the circumstances in Ukraine - with the active foreign invasion, with the occupied territories and millions of displaced citizens - are extremely complex.
DV: Don't you think that the calls by influential Ukrainian politicians for an immediate renewal of power in the country could play into Russian narratives about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government and the immediate need for elections?
R. Hilton: There is no doubt that such a risk exists. But a bigger problem is the additional security burden that the elections in Ukraine would become at an already extremely complex moment. The elections would practically open another front in the war. Russia would have many incentives to influence the process, forcing Ukraine not only to defend its territory and population, but also the integrity of the democratic process.
This does not mean that holding elections should be ruled out indefinitely. But they must be held on Ukraine's terms and when it itself decides that the conditions are favorable. Because the danger is that the elections, which are supposed to demonstrate the resilience of Ukrainian democracy, could become yet another battlefield that Russia can exploit.