Ukraine could become one of the world's fastest-growing investment markets and could become Europe's new "economic miracle" if the reforms needed to join the European Union are implemented. This was the forecast made by EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Koss at a forum in Brussels on the economic benefits of EU enlargement.
Koss compared the current stage of enlargement to the late 1990s, when Central and Eastern European countries, including her home country Slovenia, were preparing to join the EU. She described the years that followed as "a remarkable economic success story". According to her, many of these countries have tripled the size of their economies during the two decades of EU membership.
The European Commissioner sees similar potential among the current candidates, and regarding Ukraine, Kos believes that if the necessary reforms are carried out, the country will be able to provide jobs, economic growth and long-term stability for Europe as a whole. Ukraine has already become an "engine of innovation", the European Commissioner also notes.
Integration even before EU membership
However, Kos emphasizes that the economic effect of EU membership does not manifest itself automatically - reforms that ensure the rule of law are of particular importance in this process. Legal certainty is also necessary for investments - businesses must be confident not only in the possibilities of making profits, but also in the fact that their investments are protected and that they can count on equal treatment in court.
At the same time, the European Commission advocates for a more active gradual integration of the candidate countries even before their formal admission to the Community. This involves adaptation not only to the single European market, but also to strategic areas such as energy, transport, digitalization, artificial intelligence and defense.
As an example, Kos points to the partnership concluded with Ukraine in the defense industry in July. According to her, it already integrates the Ukrainian defense industry into European production and the public procurement system. According to the European Commissioner, this gradual integration should not become a replacement for full membership, but if a candidate country's path to the EU takes many years, Brussels cannot simply wait with folded arms.
Kos also draws attention to this: the European Union must act faster than its geopolitical competitors and strengthen its positions in the candidate countries early on. According to her, external players use different strategies to increase their influence in these countries.
Russia is trying to block EU enlargement
For example, Russia and China act differently in this regard. Russia is trying to thwart the enlargement process and prevent new accessions. An example here is Montenegro, where, according to Kos, cyberattacks and disinformation have increased significantly since the announcement of the start of preparations for EU membership.
Beijing has a different strategy. According to Kos, China is "wedge-driving" into the candidate countries: Chinese companies are entering their markets, counting on the fact that after joining the EU they will automatically find themselves in the single European market.
At the same time, Kos admits that obstacles to enlargement also arise within the EU itself - for example, when individual countries block the EU membership of others.
At the same forum, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva was asked by DW whether she thought it was possible for Ukraine to become an economic miracle after joining the EU, given the current state of the Ukrainian economy and the high-level corruption scandals.
At the moment, Georgieva is not giving a specific economic forecast for Ukraine, but instead is focusing on Ukraine's accession to the EU itself. Is this prospect realistic? Yes, the IMF chief believes. According to her, the Russian aggression has demonstrated Ukraine's incredible determination to overcome challenges of a scale that was unimaginable before the war. According to Georgieva, this determination is also manifested in the implementation of the reforms necessary to prepare Ukraine for the EU.
Why Georgieva believes in Ukraine's European future
As the main reason for her optimism, Georgieva points to the Ukrainians themselves. "The most important factor in our confidence that Ukraine will meet the requirements is the people of Ukraine", says the IMF chief. She describes the determination of Ukrainians to become part of Europe as the strongest she has seen - even stronger than the one she observed in her homeland of Bulgaria.
Kristalina Georgieva does not ignore the problem of corruption. "Let's not forget what we know from Yugoslavia - war creates a favorable environment for corruption," says Georgieva. According to her, however, Ukrainians are fighting this problem: "It is not easy and not always successful. But they are fighting it.".
Author: Ksenia Polska