A peace deal that requires Kiev to accept a land swap with Russia would not only be deeply unpopular. It would also be illegal under Ukraine’s constitution.
That’s why President Volodymyr Zelensky has flatly rejected any deal with Moscow that could involve giving up territory, after US President Donald Trump suggested such a concession would be beneficial to both sides, ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.
Zelensky said over the weekend that Kiev “will not give Russia any rewards for what it has done” and that “Ukrainians will not give their land to the occupier.” The comments came after Trump said the peace deal would include a swap of Ukrainian territory by both sides "for the good of both sides."
For Zelensky, such an agreement would be a disaster for his presidency and would spark public discontent after more than three years of bloodshed and Ukrainian casualties. Zelensky also lacks the authority to sign it because the redrawing of Ukraine's borders since 1991 violates the country's constitution.
For now, freezing the front line seems like an outcome the Ukrainian people are willing to accept.
Here are some of the challenges such proposals pose:
Russia occupies about a fifth of Ukraine, from the northeast of the country to the Crimean peninsula, which it illegally annexed in 2014.
The front line is vast and cuts across six regions - the active front stretches for at least 1,000 kilometers – but if measured from the Russian border, it reaches 2,300 kilometers.
Russia controls almost all of Luhansk Oblast and almost two-thirds of Donetsk Oblast, which together make up the Donbas, as Ukraine’s strategic industrial heartland is called. Russia has long wanted the region and illegally announced its annexation in the first year of its full-scale invasion, even though it did not control much of it at the time.
Russia also partially controls more than half of Kherson Oblast, which is crucial for maintaining logistical supply flows coming from the land corridor in neighboring Crimea, as well as parts of Zaporizhia Oblast, where the Kremlin has seized Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
Russian forces also control parts of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts in northeastern Ukraine, which are much less strategically valuable to Moscow. Russian troops are also advancing in the Dnepropetrovsk region. These may be territories that Moscow is willing to exchange for territory it considers more important in the Donetsk region, where the Russian army has concentrated most of its efforts.
"There will be an exchange of territories. I know this from Russia and from conversations with everyone. For the good, for the good of Ukraine. Good things, not bad things. "Also, some bad things for both sides," Trump said on Monday.
Ukrainian forces are still active in Russia's Kursk region, but they control almost no territory there, making it not as strong a bargaining chip as leaders in Kiev probably hoped when they launched their bold incursion across the border last year.
Exchanging Ukrainian-controlled territory to Russia, no matter how small, would likely be the only acceptable option for Kiev in any territory swap scenario.
Handing over territory would result in those who don't want to live under Russian rule packing up and leaving. Many civilians have endured so much suffering and bloodshed since pro-Moscow forces began fighting the Ukrainian army in the east of the country in 2014 and since the start of a full-scale invasion in 2022.
From a military perspective, abandoning the Donetsk region in particular would significantly improve Russia's ability to attack Ukraine again, according to the Washington think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Accepting such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its "fortified belt" – the main line of defense in Donetsk since 2014 – "with no guarantee that fighting will not resume", the institute said in a recent report.
The regional defense line has thwarted Russia's efforts to seize the region and continues to thwart Russia's efforts to seize the rest of the territory, the IIM said.
Ukraine's constitution poses a serious challenge to any land swap deal, as it requires a national referendum to approve changes to the country's territorial borders, said Igor Raiterovich, a professor of politics at the Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv.
"Changes in territorial integrity can only be made by a decision of the people - neither the president, nor the cabinet, nor the parliament can change them," he said. "The constitution states that changes to the territory of Ukraine can only be made by referendum."
If Zelensky agrees to a land swap with Russia during the negotiations, "at that very moment he will become a criminal, because he will violate the fundamental law that governs Ukraine," Raiterovich said.
Trump said he was "a little worried" from Zelensky's claim over the weekend that he needed constitutional approval to cede territory to Russia that it seized in its unprovoked invasion.
"I mean, he has approval to go to war and kill everybody, but he needs approval to do a land swap?" Trump added. "Because there will be a land swap. I know that from Russia and from talking to everybody."
Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, brought a copy of her country's constitution to her interview on CBS Sunday and said how the president is "the guarantor of the Constitution" and cannot cede land under Article 133.
Zelensky is still trying to regain public trust, which was damaged when he reversed course on a law that would have reduced the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies. The move was a red line for those citizens who defend the country’s institutions and are suspicious of some members of Zelensky’s inner circle.
Analysts like Reiterovich dismiss the territory swap as a distraction. Freezing the conflict along the current front line is the only option Ukrainians are willing to accept, he said, citing recent polls.
That option would buy both sides time to consolidate their human resources and develop their domestic arms industries. Ukraine will need strong security guarantees from its Western partners to deter future Russian aggression, which Kiev sees as inevitable.
However, freezing the conflict would also be difficult for Ukrainians to accept.
Together with the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the partial occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk regions thereafter, this would mean accepting that the Ukrainian army is unable to regain the lost territories militarily. Kiev has accepted its inability to regain these territories, but has never officially recognized them as Russian. A similar scenario could play out in the new regions taken over by Russian forces.
This is not a viable long-term solution either.
"This is the lesser evil for everyone and will not cause protests or rallies in the streets," said Raiterovich.
(BTA/Assen Georgiev)