Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will seek more support from his allies when he addresses the 80th anniversary session of the UN General Assembly and meets with US President Donald Trump this week. Behind the scenes, however, Kiev is quietly preparing for a new phase of the war in which it will rely more on itself, BTA writes, citing "Reuters".
Kiev's hopes of winning tough new U.S. sanctions against Russia are fading, and a new pragmatism in Ukraine makes Zelensky's trip calmer than some earlier visits to the United States, drawing lessons from the rupture in relations with the White House in February.
Frenetic European diplomacy and expressions of regret from Ukraine after the disastrous February meeting paved the way for the resumption of crucial intelligence sharing with Kiev and arms deliveries approved by Trump's predecessor, former President Joe Biden.
Still, intense lobbying has failed to persuade Trump to impose sanctions that would damage Russia's military economy enough to force President Vladimir Putin to sit down. at the negotiating table, and Ukrainians remain skeptical that the war will end soon.
Ukrainians are uncertain about their future
Only 18 percent of Ukrainians believe that hostilities can end this year, and a sense of uncertainty about the future reigns in Ukraine, said Anton Grushetsky, director of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology. Putin has had several diplomatic successes recently, including a red carpet welcome from Trump at their meeting in Alaska last month, and there are signs that Ukraine is moving into a new phase of the war in which foreign support has been reduced.
A Ukrainian think tank that previously studied Russia to find targets for government sanctions is now conducting analysis to help the military select targets for drone strikes, a senior official said.
The source said that Ukraine has not only suffered setbacks in the face of sanctions and reduced U.S. aid, but could also lose some of the support of allies in Europe. In a sign of Kiev's own attempts to increase pressure on Russia, long-range Ukrainian drones have struck ports and refineries, prompting Moscow to warn of an impending reduction in crude oil production.
"A very important place to be"
Zelensky is likely to ask Trump today to impose new US sanctions on Russia, a day before he addresses the UN General Assembly. Kiev is also presenting plans to hold a summit on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, an event that appears to be aimed at derailing discussions on any peace deal that would include recognizing Crimea as Russian territory.
Putin says more than 700,000 Russian troops are currently fighting on the front lines in Ukraine, and Russian forces have occupied about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Moscow wants all that territory and more before it can even consider negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials described their work ahead of Zelensky’s arrival in New York late last night as pragmatic diplomacy, not preparation for a decisive trip.
"New York is a platform every September. It’s a very important place to be," Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsia, who previously served as Ukraine’s permanent representative to the United Nations, told Reuters. "I wish it were easier, but there will never be easy solutions to conflicts of this magnitude. So I think none of us will come back from New York with easy solutions. And we will continue to work hard after (the meeting) in New York," he added.
Stumbling blocks on the battlefield and heavy losses
Russian forces, which invaded in February 2022, have been advancing slowly in eastern Ukraine for the past two years, but have failed to capture the Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, which has been one of their main objectives for months.
Although it has decreased, US support remains essential for Ukraine, and Kiev's allies are concerned about the size of its reserve military personnel. A senior European Union diplomat said that intelligence sharing with the US and a new mechanism for purchasing US weapons from Ukraine are essential for Ukrainian forces' ability to hold their ground.
Zelensky said that the first weapons delivered under this mechanism include Patriot air defense systems. and HIMARS rocket launchers, and that Ukraine has so far secured over $2 billion in funding for U.S.-made weapons.
Ukraine’s more confident stance on weapons, according to the senior diplomat, is evident from Zelensky’s less assertive tone in recent public statements.
Andriy Zagorodniuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister from 2019 to 2020, said that European strategy has often focused on the idea of deterrence in order to prevent future conflicts, but Putin had no interest in stopping Russia’s war in Ukraine, and so Kiev’s strategy has been to prevent Russian forces from succeeding.
“The strategy is to neutralize Russia,” the former Ukrainian defense minister said. "This would lead to an opportunity to stabilize the situation and hopefully start a recovery, at least (to some extent), without Russia agreeing to agree to stop the war," he added.
Like a ritual dance
A former senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, doubted that Trump would impose sanctions on Russia at all, and said Ukraine would be better off focusing on strengthening its armed forces.
He was dismissive of negotiations between the United States, Ukraine and the European Union on security guarantees to protect Ukraine after a supposed agreement to end the war is reached. Comparing the process to a ritual dance, he said: "It would be very beautiful if people weren't killed."