For the first time in months, Israel struck a Hezbollah target in the Lebanese capital Beirut. According to Lebanese authorities, at least five people were killed and 28 were injured in the attack. Among the dead was Ali Tabtabai, Hezbollah's chief of general staff. Back in 2018, the US announced a reward for his capture.
In just a few days, Israel and Lebanon are to mark the anniversary of the ceasefire they signed on November 27, 2024. But is there a risk of a new war breaking out?
A new escalation and the danger of a ground offensive?
Israel and the US have recently been increasing pressure on Lebanon to disarm the terrorist group Hezbollah. The country's army presented a similar plan, which was approved in September, and plans to do so by the end of the year.
However, Israel's latest strikes have raised concerns in Beirut that a new ground operation against Hezbollah positions in the southern parts of the country could occur. Israel's strikes on Hezbollah positions have also become more frequent recently.
This will create serious difficulties for the plans of the authorities, who are preparing for the visit of Pope Leo XIV.
Lebanese authorities - powerless against Israel and Hezbollah
On November 22, Lebanon celebrated its independence day, and on this occasion, President Joseph Aoun said that the country was opening a new page in its development. "This page will only end when we achieve full sovereignty and all Lebanese can live with dignity in a state that upholds justice."
However, the official authorities in the country, which is in a severe economic and social crisis, seem powerless to guarantee this, as a number of commentators have noted. Lebanon's security is defined by two main factors - Israel and Hezbollah, which continues to have enormous domestic political influence. The organization's political wing continues to block key government decisions and control large parts of the country.
Will Hezbollah disarm?
At the same time, the group would hardly be able to wage a full-scale war, experts note. "Hezbollah's military capabilities evaporated in September last year," notes political analyst Hana Saleh. "After the pager attacks, Hezbollah was unable to respond - even when Israel killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah, it was unable to respond."
Israel accuses Hezbollah of rearming again and the Lebanese government of not taking the necessary steps to prevent this. "Under my leadership, Israel will not allow Hezbollah to regain its strength and once again pose a threat to the state of Israel," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
His Lebanese counterpart, Joseph Aoun, called on the international community to put pressure on Israel, which continues to occupy parts of Lebanon, to stop the attacks and withdraw from the country. The Lebanese government has pledged to disarm Hezbollah, but the group says it will not negotiate in that direction until Israel ends its attacks, withdraws completely from Lebanon and releases Lebanese prisoners.