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Lebanon - on the brink of a new war?

The Lebanese feel defenseless, and the country seems to continue to be a pawn in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Now it is also threatened by a new full-scale war.

Снимка: БГНЕС/ EPA

Almost every day, Israel attacks Lebanon, mainly with the help of drones that target cars or houses, despite the official ceasefire that the two sides concluded a year ago.

Many of these attacks have resulted in deaths, including civilians. Just a few days ago, at least 13 people were killed in the city of Saida. Recently, Israel also attacked the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut, where the chief of staff of the Shiite militia, Haitham Ali Tabtabai, was killed, ARD recalls.

Since the ceasefire came into effect a year ago, the UN peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL) has recorded more than 10,000 ceasefire violations, and its representatives have also come under fire several times. "We can talk about a truce on paper, but it is violated almost daily," Christian Brakel of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Beirut told the German media. According to him, the Israeli drone attacks are not only aimed at eliminating Hezbollah members, but are also airstrikes against infrastructure and efforts to rebuild it.

A pawn in the conflict between Israel and Iran

The anger against Israel is palpable on the streets of Beirut. "This truce has failed", says Bashir, a local resident. "Every day Israel attacks the south. We are an independent state. They do whatever they want."

Another Beirut resident, who gave his name as Karim, added: "This is capitulation, because nothing from the truce agreement is being implemented. Every day there are Israeli attacks, deaths and destroyed homes. And the international community stands by and does not intervene."

Many people in Lebanon feel defenseless, and the country seems to continue to be a pawn in the conflict between Israel and Iran. "Nothing depends on us anymore - other countries decide whether there will be another war or not", says Mohammed, who works as an assistant lawyer. Despite the promise made, Hezbollah refuses to disarm, and its leader Naim Qassem says that "anyone who considers the resistance a problem is ready to hand over the country to Israel".

Will there be another war?

Is another war and, accordingly, an Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon imminent? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that if Hezbollah does not voluntarily hand over its weapons or is not disarmed by the Lebanese authorities, Israel will take on this task itself. Otherwise, the group could quickly recover and regroup in its fight against Israel.

According to observers, Netanyahu wants to take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah is weaker than ever after last year's war. The proof is the fact that the terrorist group does not shell Israel, enjoys little international support, and Iran has apparently lost much of its influence in the region, ARD points out.

The Lebanese government is powerless

The situation in Lebanon is at a standstill: President Joseph Aoun is under strong pressure from the United States and Israel to implement the agreement and disarm Hezbollah. But the Lebanese army is weak, and the militant group still has serious positions and acts as a state within a state - it is a political force, holds levers in the economy and provides social services to the population. Therefore, there is a risk of civil war in the country if the domestic political pressure on Hezbollah is increased.

The actions of the state leadership seem toothless and half-hearted. President Aoun repeats that only the army and security forces should have weapons. "Only in this way can we regain the trust of the world", he adds.

This Sunday, Pope Leo XIV is expected in Lebanon, which is included in the program of his first foreign trip after his election as head of the Roman Catholic Church. And many people in Lebanon hope that the pope will send a clear message of peace. But this time - for real peace, summarizes Anna Osius of ARD.

Author; Anna Osius ARD