US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategy is built on the belief that Russia is capable of outlasting the West and Ukraine in a prolonged and exhausting military conflict. This is among the main conclusions of the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports News.bg.
In an interview with Fox News on December 2, Rubio described Putin as the “hardest party” in the process of possible peace negotiations. According to him, the Russian leader's statements that Russia will achieve its goals regardless of the cost and time reflect his real attitude towards the war in Ukraine.
According to Rubio, Putin's long-term concept of victory is based on the assumption that the Russian army and economy will prevail over Western support for Ukraine, as well as over the country's ability to defend itself. At the same time, he noted that it is unrealistic for Russia to continue the war for another “four or five years”, emphasizing that Moscow currently controls a smaller part of Ukrainian territory compared to the first months of the invasion in 2022.
Ukraine has managed to regain over 50% of the territories seized by Russia since the start of the full-scale war. In addition, the Russian economy faces a number of difficulties that are likely to limit its ability to sustain long-term military operations.
However, Russian authorities continue to present recent tactical successes as evidence of an imminent victory. On December 3, presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov said that the achievements of Russian forces had a "positive impact" on the meeting between Putin and a US delegation in Moscow on December 2, and, according to him, gave the West a "more realistic assessment" of the possible paths to peace.
The Kremlin has reactivated the thesis that Odessa is a Russian city, while simultaneously continuing attempts to mobilize Russian and Belarusian society in support of military expansion. Belarusian organizations, as well as the Russian Orthodox Church, are also involved in these efforts, with the aim of strengthening domestic support and influence on international campaigns.
On the battlefield, Russian forces achieved a tactical breakthrough northeast and east of Khulyaypole in mid-November 2025, probably by concentrating forces comparable to those in the Pokrovsk-Dobropilya direction. The breakthrough of the 5th Airborne Army in the area could create conditions for operational successes in the direction of Hulyaipole and Orekhov, with the actual development largely depending on the resistance of Ukrainian forces and their ability to prevent the crossing of the rivers.
At the same time, high-ranking Kremlin representatives continue to create prerequisites that could justify future aggression against Moldova and the Baltic states.
Ukrainian troops have recently made progress in the areas near Vovchansk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlovka and in the tactical zone Kostyantynivka-Druzhkovka. Russian forces, in turn, have advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk. Ukraine's European allies continue to provide military and logistical assistance to the country.