Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to show that he would not accept a peace agreement limited to the war in Ukraine unless it includes radical changes to the security architecture in Europe and the role of NATO. This is stated in an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), News.bg reports.
On January 15, Putin said that the war in Ukraine is a “direct response” of the actions of the West, which, in its opinion, has ignored Russia's interests by expanding NATO, despite claims of earlier promises that this would not happen.
At the end of 2021, Moscow made ultimatums to the Alliance, including insisting that NATO return to its 1997 borders. ISW analysts emphasize that these demands go beyond both the 28-point plan proposed by the US and all subsequent peace initiatives.
According to the institute, Putin remains faithful to his original strategic goals, formulated back in 2021-2022, which are not limited to Ukrainian territory, but have broader geopolitical dimensions.
At the same time, the Kremlin continues to maintain the narrative that Ukrainian defense is close to collapse. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on January 15 that the situation for Kiev was worsening daily and that the Ukrainian leadership's "decision-making space" was shrinking, suggesting that Ukraine must accept Russian conditions.
However, combat data does not support this assessment. Ukrainian forces have managed to prevent Moscow from achieving its goal of completely subjugating the country. At the peak of the Russian offensive in March 2022, Russia controlled 26.16% of Ukraine's territory, but after the Ukrainian counteroffensive, this share fell to 20.21% by the end of April of that year.
By the end of 2022, after successful operations in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, Russian control had been reduced to 17.84%. In 2023, 2024 and 2025, the situation remained relatively stable, with control varying between 17.9% and 18.52%, reaching around 19.32% at the end of 2025.
This means that over the past three years, Russia has increased the territory it controls by only around 1.5%. According to ISW, these gains have been achieved slowly and at great cost, mainly through exhausting infantry attacks, without the restoration of an effective mechanized offensive. Analysts believe that such a pace makes a rapid collapse of the Ukrainian front line unlikely.
However, the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, continues to present exaggerated figures for the progress of Russian troops. On January 15, he said that Russia was advancing in almost all directions and that Ukraine's attempts to stop the offensive had failed.
Gerasimov claimed that in the first two weeks of January 2026, Russian forces had captured over 300 square kilometers. However, according to ISW observations, the actually confirmed expansion of the Russian presence between December 31 and January 13 amounted to about 73.82 square kilometers - approximately a quarter of what Moscow had announced.