Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has two key pieces of advice for anyone negotiating with Vladimir Putin, writes "Politico".
First and foremost, never trust him; and second, only start negotiating with the Russian leader when you're arguing from a position of strength, he advises.
Poroshenko fears that these maxims are being ignored in the current peace talks over Russia's war, conducted with the mediation of the United States.
Poroshenko, the so-called "Chocolate King" of Ukraine, is guided by his experience with the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015. Designed to freeze the conflict over Donbas and signed by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany and Ukrainian separatists, neither agreement has been preserved.
He expressed his observations on the state of the negotiations as Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in Geneva with US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in the latest round of so-far unsuccessful talks to end the war.
Poroshenko, Ukraine's first elected president since the 2013-14 Euromaidan uprising that toppled Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovych, is concerned about the direction of these peace talks.
Poroshenko, who leads the "European Solidarity" party - the main opposition faction in Ukraine, believes that his arch-rival, President Volodymyr Zelensky, made a mistake by starting negotiations that exclude the Europeans and should have insisted on an immediate ceasefire.
"Despite the Oval Office disaster in February a year ago, he should have stuck to the demand for a simple ceasefire. He doesn't understand Putin and he doesn't understand Trump. And we have another problem: Trump doesn't understand Putin. And this is a global tragedy, not only for Ukraine," Poroshenko stressed.
"Trump thinks that Putin is bargaining with him and trying to get better peace terms. This is not true. Putin is not bargaining. He has a completely different understanding. Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union. Putin wants to restore the Russian Empire. I have no doubt about that. Putin dreams of his place in history. And no matter the cost of lives lost - Russian lives and, of course, Ukrainian lives," he added.
Poroshenko does not believe that Putin is particularly interested in securing additional lands in eastern Ukraine that his troops have failed to seize and that he demands Kiev hand over in a possible peace agreement.
According to him, Putin is using this demand "to try to destabilize the internal political situation in Ukraine" and to destroy the unity of the country, since any territorial concession would have to be voted on in a referendum that would divide Ukrainians.
"This is the Russian scenario. Don't forget that Putin is a KGB officer. He is an expert in such things," Poroshenko noted.
During the 2019 election campaign, Zelensky attacked Poroshenko for signing the failed Minsk agreements, which were extremely unpopular and which Russia never implemented.
Poroshenko, however, defends the Minsk process. He claims that he has given much less than Putin demanded. "But at least Minsk bought me five years to help build the Ukrainian state, church and army," the former president said.
Poroshenko believes those five years made all the difference in Ukraine's ability to resist a Russian invasion in 2022 and prevent defeat.
The Europeans must now join the negotiations, heeding French President Emmanuel Macron's call for the continent to participate directly, Poroshenko said.
"I think momentum will build," he said, but he noted that support from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was needed. "Europe has every right to be at the table, as it is the one financing Ukraine at the moment. However, without Trump, without America, it is impossible to reach a peace agreement. The role of the United States is important, but nothing can happen without Europe either. They can play the role of good cop and bad cop," he added.
However, Poroshenko believes that Trump must cross one of his red lines to guarantee Ukraine's post-war security.
"It must include action on the ground. Whose action? America's, because without them there will be conflict again," he was categorical.
Poroshenko believes that Trump, who has ruled out sending American troops to Ukraine, can be persuaded to change his mind.
He claims that in 2017, when he was president and Trump was serving his first term, the two discussed deploying U.S. troops as part of a NATO or UN peacekeeping force. Trump initially ruled that out. "He hates NATO. He hates UN peacekeeping operations," Poroshenko said.
However, as they discussed the issue, Trump began to consider the possibility. Poroshenko said that Trump had his legacy in mind and wanted to go down in history as a president of peace.
"And Trump cannot reach a peace agreement without a presence on the ground," the former Ukrainian leader argued.