Tensions between the US and Iran are escalating and a major military conflict in the region seems increasingly possible. In this context, Lebanon finds itself in a particularly worrying situation. The country's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has repeatedly stated that his country will not interfere in other people's problems. Earlier this week, he called on the terrorist group Hezbollah not to involve Lebanon in "another adventure". Naim Qassem, the new leader of the Iranian-backed group, already said in January that a US attack on Iran would be considered an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. "When the time comes to take a stand, we will not hesitate," Qassem said.
The United States' main partner in the Middle East, Israel, has warned Beirut that it will strike Lebanon if Hezbollah intervenes in a potential war between the United States and Iran. "Iran will expect Hezbollah to intervene if this scenario becomes a reality - mainly to put pressure on Israel," said Burcu Özçelik, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “The pressure for integration exerted by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Hezbollah's role in the country's political life are creating the conditions for a major war,” the expert believes.
The fragmentation of Hezbollah
Hezbollah, whose military wing is designated a terrorist organization by the United States, Germany and a number of other countries, began striking Israel in support of Hamas after the Gaza-based terrorist group attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. In November 2024, a ceasefire was declared between Hezbollah and Israel after they fought a two-month war, with most of the terrorist group's leaders killed. Hezbollah's infrastructure and military arsenal have also suffered. About 4,000 people were killed.
The ceasefire required Hezbollah to disarm, but the group has so far only laid down its arms in the area south of the Litani River. Full disarmament was refused by Hezbollah on the grounds that it must defend Lebanon from ongoing Israeli attacks and the military occupation of southern Lebanon. Israel, on the other hand, has repeatedly stated that it will not stop attacking Hezbollah as long as the group continues to pose a threat to the country. Hezbollah is part of Iran's so-called "Axis of Resistance" - along with Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as a number of paramilitary groups in Iraq. For them, the US and Israel are existential enemies.
Regarding the so-called second phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which also includes the group's full disarmament, Lebanese Prime Minister Salam is cautious. According to him, the fulfillment of this condition “depends on several factors, including the upcoming conference in support of the Lebanese state army”. This high-level meeting is scheduled for March 5 and will be attended by representatives of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and France.
Will there be disarmament?
According to the American Institute for the Study of War, the delayed disarmament of Hezbollah could complicate this process, as the organization is gathering new forces at this time. Nevertheless, Hezbollah remains significantly weaker than it was before the fighting, notes Middle East expert Mohanad Hage Ali. "The group is weakened and fragmented, which makes decision-making more difficult," he said.
Researcher Özçelik believes that if tensions between Iran and the United States lead to military action, some symbolic involvement by Hezbollah is entirely possible. "There may be limited and well-considered attacks on Israeli targets that will aim to demonstrate solidarity and satisfy Tehran. At the same time, however, they will probably be fewer than would be needed to provoke a large-scale response from Israel," the expert believes. According to her, the changing dynamics of the potential conflict will be crucial for how Israel responds and what involvement it will take.
“I feel helpless”
The Lebanese themselves are discouraged by what is happening - the country's population is suffering from the economic and political crisis that Lebanon has been in since 2019. People are also still recovering from the deadly incident at the Beirut port in 2020, as well as from the heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in 2023 and 2024.
“I feel helpless”, says Nadim El Riz, 35, who lives in southern Lebanon. “I expect a big and deadly war to start between Iran and its proxies on one side, and the US and Israel on the other”. Raymond Khoury from Beirut is also worried. “I am afraid that my country will be dragged into a war because of Hezbollah's direct connection with Iran and we will be involved if something happens”.
Fatimah Naim, 27, from Beirut, says she's trying to live with the situation for now and not think about what could happen. "I'm trying not to think about the potential escalation because it's something I can't control," she tells DW.
Author: Jennifer Hollis