In closed-door discussions, Israeli officials have acknowledged that it is not certain that a war against Iran will lead to the fall of the ayatollahs' rule, a senior Israeli official told Reuters, and there is no sign of an uprising by the Iranian people amid the ongoing bombing, BTA reports.
Despite comments by US President Donald Trump that the war could end soon, Israel's assessment is that Washington is not close to ending the conflict, two Israeli officials said.
The massive bombing campaign launched by the US and Israel led to the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a number of top military commanders, but has also claimed the lives of civilians and destroyed homes and public buildings, angering many Iranians.
With missiles raining down on Tehran and other cities, and authorities threatening deadly force against anyone who dares to protest, Iranians who would otherwise take to the streets may be afraid to do so until the war is over.
Yet the long-term challenges facing Iran appear more dire than ever. The noose of sanctions is tightening and strangling the economy, and there are no prospects for a better future for the population, whose protests in January were suppressed at the cost of thousands of victims.
Israel does not believe that the US is close to ending the war
The senior Israeli official did not specify what led his country to conclude that the collapse of the Iranian regime is not certain.
On February 28, the day Israel launched a joint air strike with the US, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "Our joint actions will create the conditions for the courageous Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands".
He specifically mentioned Iran's major ethnic and linguistic minorities – Kurds, Baloch and Arabs, fuelling speculation that the US and Israel may support insurgencies organised by these groups.
However, in a statement earlier this week, Netanyahu reiterated that while Israel's aim was to help the Iranians "throw away the yoke of tyranny", ultimately "it is up to them" – an apparent admission that such action does not seem certain.
Israel and the United States have not issued a joint public statement outlining clear and unified military objectives or formulating the conditions under which they might decide to end the campaign.
On Monday, Trump described the war as "largely over", but on Tuesday the White House said it would only end when Trump deemed its objectives had been achieved and Iran declared an unconditional surrender.
At a closed-door briefing for foreign diplomats on Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar declined to commit to a timeline for ending the military campaign – which coincides with the administration's assessment that Trump is not close to ending it.
At the briefing, Saar acknowledged that the Iranian government could survive the war, but expressed confidence that it would inevitably fall at a later stage, sources said.
The same day, this time to reporters, Saar said that the war would continue until Israel and the United States decide that the time has come to end the hostilities, but added that Israel does not want an "endless war."
Asaf Orion, a former head of the Israeli army's strategic planning department and an expert at the Institute for Near East Policy in Washington, said that weakening Iran's military capabilities sounds more direct and tangible as a goal.
"Creating the conditions for regime change is a goal that sounds abstract, so that makes it "more difficult to understand," he said, adding that while the military campaign appears to have been planned to last a few weeks, any uprising against the system in Iran could last months or even years.
War leaves no streets to protest on, says Tehran resident
Yesterday, Iranian police chief Ahmadreza Radan warned that "anyone who takes to the streets at the suggestion of the enemy will be treated not as a protester but as an enemy." "All of our security forces have their finger on the trigger," he said.
While many Iranians want change and some openly celebrated the death of Ali Khamenei, whose security forces killed thousands of anti-government protesters just weeks ago, there has been no sign of protests against the regime since the war began.
"I hate this regime. I want it to go, but the bombings leave no streets to protest on," said Ali, 26, from Tehran.
Although the streets of Tehran are much quieter than usual, banks, gas stations and shops are still open, albeit with reduced hours and a stricter fuel coupon system. All government offices are open.
"There are bombings every day and every night. The whole building and the windows are shaking," said a Tehran resident who asked to remain anonymous. "Despite dissatisfaction with the regime, the Iranian people's sense of pride and patriotism is growing, and people are expressing hostility towards Reza Pahlavi, Trump and Netanyahu," the resident added, referring to the son of Iran's last shah, who called for military intervention.
However, the bombings destroyed airports and ports, as well as other civilian infrastructure, which further deepened the problems facing the Iranian government in the face of the economic crisis that has become one of the reasons for the people's anger.
"Iran prefers the war to continue because if it ends, protests will begin over the economic and other problems that the war has exacerbated," said a university professor in Tehran, who also asked not to be identified.