1.35 - this is the number that should worry politicians in the Federal Republic. Statistics show that every woman in Germany gives birth to 1.35 children. This is far from the statistical 2.1, which is needed to maintain the size of the German population. This is according to the current calculations of the Federal Statistical Office.
In 2025, about 650,000 children were born in the country. For comparison: in 2024, 677,000 were born. In both years, about one million people died. As of December 31, 2025, Germany's population was around 83.5 million, which is around 100,000 fewer than in 2024.
Why are fewer children being born in Germany?
Family is still important to people in Germany, says Katharina Spies, director of the Federal Institute for Demographic Research. "People still want to have children and the question is why they can't actually have them", she said when presenting the latest demographic data.
Judging by the desire for children expressed by respondents aged 19 to 29, the birth rate in Germany should be 2.4 children per woman, says Spies. "Security plays a very important role in realizing the desire for children. However, the many crises have meant that people do not actually realize their desires."
Do children increase the risk of poverty?
In addition to the general uncertainty caused by the changed situation in the world, there are also specific problems: a housing shortage, rising rents, a lack of places in kindergartens or unreliable childcare. Fears of a worsening financial situation are growing because parents are usually having to reduce their working hours. It is increasingly common to hear that people can no longer afford to have children in Germany.
The Federal Statistical Office calculates at regular intervals how the population will develop in the coming decades. Politics and economics need this information because data on the population and its age are extremely important for the country's future. The latest forecast covers the period up to 2070 and according to it, the population could decrease to around 74 million by then, i.e. about ten percent, and immigration will not be able to compensate for this decline. According to forecasts made in 2021/2022, the population was expected to remain stable at 83-84 million - mainly against the background of increased immigration.
"Baby boomers" are retiring
Fewer residents in the country? In itself, this would not necessarily be a problem. But Germany is aging. While the number of children and young people is decreasing, the number of elderly people will increase significantly, estimates Carsten Lohmer, head of the "Population" department at the Federal Statistical Office. The generation of the so-called "baby boomers" (those born in the 1960s) had more than 1 million children born annually. However, after them, the birth rate fell. And now the "baby boomers" are in the transition from active working life to retirement.
"There are already 33 people of retirement age for every 100 people of working age," says Lohmer. By 2035, around one in four people in Germany will have passed the traditional retirement age of 67. By 2050, the number of people over 80 will have increased from the current six million to around nine million.
The social system is reaching its limits
These are figures that worry economists and sociologists in particular. "The sharp decline and aging of the population must be taken into account today - in political decisions with long-term effects, for example in the areas of health care and care for the sick and elderly," demands economist Joachim Ragnitz from the ifo Institute in Dresden. The pension system is also under great pressure. Especially considering that the trend is leading to a shortage of workers.
Carsten Loomer from the Federal Statistical Office puts it even more clearly: "There is a low birth rate, but at the same time a social system that still behaves as if the birth rate is high". According to him, the question of what the social system should look like in the future should have been resolved long ago. "But we neglected to do so", he adds.
Currently, around 40 percent of people over the age of 80 need some kind of care. As the number of elderly people increases, so does the need for workers in this sector. Currently, around 280,000 people work in outpatient care for the elderly. However, according to Loomer, the need will increase to 690,000 people by 2049.
Immigration into the labor market
In recent years, low birth rates and emigration from Germany have been offset by immigration. Since 1990, Germany has seen steady growth: a total of 11 million immigrants have arrived in Germany. In 2015/2016 and after 2022, their number was above average due to the wars in Syria and Ukraine. But few of these people quickly enter the labor market.
Martin Werding, one of the so-called economic sages who advise the federal government, sees this as a policy shortcoming. "The German approach is very oriented towards language learning, towards education, and often the acquired qualifications are checked for too long instead of simply being recognized," says the economics professor.
Ten years after the migration wave of 2015/2016, two thirds of refugees are now working, according to a study by the Institute for Labor Market and Occupation Research. Among refugees from Ukraine, who are mostly women, this percentage is only around 31.
Many Ukrainians want to stay
Today, more than a million Ukrainians live in Germany. After the Turks, they are the second largest foreign group. "They have contributed a lot to changing the structure of the German population and now society has to ask itself whether it can count on them and whether they want to stay", says demographer Katharina Spies.
The Federal Institute for Demographic Research conducts surveys twice a year. New data shows that the number of Ukrainians who want to stay in Germany has increased significantly - 42 percent of them now have such attitudes. But uncertainty among people in this group is also increasing. "Today, more people say they don't know. "Many children and young people say they can't imagine staying here forever," says Spies.
Will immigration increase or decrease?
The Federal Statistical Office cannot predict the future with certainty. However, it calculates different projections based on three demographic components: birth rates, life expectancy and the migration balance.
In one respect, all scenarios are the same: immigration can only alleviate Germany's problems, not solve them. Realistically, migration cannot provide the necessary workforce and the corresponding contributions to the health and pension funds.
Author: Sabine Kinkarz