US President Trump has failed spectacularly. He started the war to free the Iranians from their Islamic leadership, to end Iran's nuclear program once and for all, to impose restrictions on its missile program and to end Iran's support for military groups in the Middle East. So far, none of this has been achieved, the German public broadcaster ARD points out in a commentary.
Instead, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, this sea route was free for everyone, but now it is no longer - for which Trump is responsible, the German media notes. It writes that with its bombings the US has weakened Iran's military capabilities, but Trump has never understood that tactical successes do not automatically translate into strategic victories. In this way, he has also lost the support of the people in Iran. Promises of help have turned into threats to "wipe out an entire civilization," and such threats show that the president is clearly out of his mind.
The Tsar is Naked
This circumstance is already being intensely discussed in the United States, writes ARD and quotes Democratic Party MP Adam Smith as saying: "We have put an unstable, narcissistic lunatic at the head of our country." Other politicians from the same party have also called Trump "crazy," and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz said: "The president has lost his mind."
The German public media notes that Trump is extremely dangerous for the peace and well-being of the world. The president ignores warnings about the great military risks - because he is convinced that he knows everything best and does not need the expertise of specialists.
The US and Iran are now due to negotiate within two weeks, with Iran in the better position, ARD notes. And it explains that it is in fact the strategic winner of the confrontation so far.
"There is no talk of success"
In an interview with the German public media, political scientist Cornelius Adebar, who is an expert on Iran issues at the German Foreign Policy Society, shares his opinion that the truce will be rather fragile. And there is no certainty that the talks in Pakistan will achieve substantial success, because the positions of the US and Iran are very far apart. “In any case, there are now prerequisites for regional partners to influence the warring parties to push them towards a peaceful solution”, he says.
Adebar points out that the war started by Trump has not led to any changes in Iran, but now the country has the Strait of Hormuz under control. “This cannot be called a success”, the political scientist points out. According to him, it is more a strategic mistake by the US - to start this war without a plan and without firm goals.
As Adebar notes, Israel and the US started the war together, but Trump is the one who can end it - if he manages to present this as his success. “He has been trying to do exactly that for several days. He says that the regime has been changed simply because other people are now in power in Tehran. And everything that he considers a success will be presented as a victory. He does not care what the consequences will be for the people in the country, for the region or for the global economy. And in addition to the countries in the region, he has also worried the countries in Europe or Asia, which are seriously affected by the energy crisis," the expert explains.
How can the Strait of Hormuz be protected
According to Cornelius Adebar, there are theoretically three options for ensuring the permanent protection of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no going back to one of them: these are the pre-war relations, when it was about a free international shipping route, not controlled by any power.
The second option is the military guarantees that Trump insists on - to protect the Strait from possible Iranian shelling. However, this is difficult because it is too narrow and Iran can attack it from any point on its territory.
The third path is the one that is currently in the spotlight - negotiations with Iran. “In the future, it may turn out that passage will only be possible if a fee is paid - as Iran wants. This will lead to costs for the world economy, which, however, are again irrelevant to the American president. Because he says - this is not our oil, we do not depend on it. And the challenge for the rest of the world is great,”, Cornelius Adebar points out to ARD.
Authors: Carsten Künthoff ARD | Karl-Georg Salzwedel ARD