Oil prices do not fully reflect the largest ever reduction in supplies, which occurred as a result of the Iran war and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports, quoted by Focus.
According to Frederick Lasser, head of the analytical department of the trading company Gunvor Group, if the war continues for another month, oil markets will run out of supplies.
For his part, Trafigura Group's chief economist Saad Rahim said that the conflict has already led to the loss of 1 billion barrels of supplies, and this figure could increase to 1.5 billion barrels if the conflict continued.
Brent crude oil futures have shown significant volatility since the start of the Iran war, rising to almost $120 a barrel before falling on the prospect of peace talks. On Tuesday, April 21, they were trading around $95 a barrel, partly due to the belief that the conflict would soon end.
"The scale seems to be such that the market can't really absorb it. It will take time for flows to return to normal if a peace deal is reached, so there is a real gap between perception and reality right now," Rahim said.
Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, notes that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may never return to pre-war levels. It estimates that about 450 million barrels of petroleum products, such as gasoline, will be lost due to the war. This estimate is based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will be 50% open next month.