In the fifth year of the war, Ukraine is definitely exhausted by the Russian attacks. But it is also full of new confidence for victory.
Ukraine will win the war, the country's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk confidently declared at the Kiev Security Forum in April. Yatsenyuk did not explain exactly what he meant, but intellectuals in the Ukrainian capital also believe so.
Volodymyr Yermolenko, a philosopher, publicist and chairman of the Ukrainian PEN club, is already talking about a new "discourse of power", writes ARD. According to him, since February, Ukrainians have believed that they are technically capable of defeating the Russians. "They are convinced that it will become increasingly difficult for Russia at the front," says Yermolenko.
Asymmetric military tactics
The debates surrounding the May 9 parade in Moscow are a perfect example of the changed dynamics, the German public media outlet notes. Many Ukrainians believe that Vladimir Putin proposed the ceasefire out of fear of a Ukrainian attack. According to them, this is a sign of weakness. Yermolenko says that Ukrainians are now using more asymmetric military tactics.
They are aimed at turning the enemy's strengths into weaknesses. Russia has been doing exactly that with Ukraine and Europe for years, trying to turn their strengths - democracy and freedom - into weaknesses. "Ukrainians are now doing the same with Russia. It thinks it is strong because it is big. Ukrainians are showing that territorial size actually makes it vulnerable. They attack here and there, and the Russians fail to defend themselves everywhere," Yermolenko told ARD.
Confronting imperial power
The same applies to the oil and gas reserves, which the Russians believe are the basis of their strong position. Ukraine's new confidence is also expressed in the fact that Kiev's attacks are often directed precisely at this base of the Russian economy - thus establishing the feeling that the war can be won.
Outside Ukraine, things look a little different. It's not just about whether Kiev can win or lose - it's about Europe, Yermolenko points out. "It's important for people in Germany to understand how outdated the idea is that Europe is an island of freedom and strong institutions. The new imperial powers - Russia, China, Trump's USA, see Europe as a continent that needs to be divided," says the publicist.
Ukraine is proving that it is possible to stand up to imperial powers - thanks to technological development and a huge desire to defend itself. Yermolenko believes that this is something that Europe should learn from Ukraine.
Where is the limit of compromise
According to him, attempts should still be made to talk with Russia, but one should not forget that there is a limit beyond which this simply does not work. "The question is to establish where the limit is", says Yermolenko in reference to those who plead for dialogue with Moscow.
For Russia, the tendency to compromise is a weakness. Therefore, according to the expert, it is important to stop the dictatorship by military means - which the Ukrainians are currently doing. But despite everything, there is no guarantee that Ukraine will be able to defeat Russia. It is also unclear when this war will end. It could be tomorrow, or it could be in ten or thirty years, writes ARD. In any case, Ukraine must be ready for a long struggle, says Yermolenko. "And this also applies to Europe."