In May, Ukraine struck eight of Russia's ten largest oil refineries. Now Moscow risks facing a fuel shortage in the country, writes Bloomberg, quoted by Focus.
In May, Ukraine struck at least 30 Russian oil facilities – this is the most for any month since the start of the full-scale invasion.
At least 16 of them were aimed directly at oil refineries. Drones attacked eight of Russia's ten largest processing plants.
Kiev has bet on repeated strikes on the same facilities – to inflict maximum damage and make quick repairs impossible.
The Yanos plant, which is jointly owned by Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, has been hit three times in a month. Lukoil's facilities in Nizhny Novgorod and Perm have been hit twice each.
Ukraine used to attack primary processing plants, which are relatively easy to repair. Now the focus has shifted to secondary processing plants.
"Secondary units help refineries produce more gasoline and diesel, but repairing them can be much more complicated and expensive, as Western sanctions make it difficult to get spare equipment from abroad," explains industry veteran and Carnegie Endowment for International Development researcher for international peace Sergey Vakulenko.
In addition to refineries, drones are also attacking export terminals, pumping stations and fuel storage facilities.
Refining has fallen to 2009 levels.
According to estimates by the analytical company OilX, in May the average refining volume reached 4.58 million barrels per day. This is 700 thousand barrels less than last year and is the lowest figure since October 2009.
Due to the shutdown of plants and the reduction of capacity, analysts expect a further decline in volumes.
In order to prevent a domestic deficit, the Russian government has banned the export of aviation fuel until the end of November. The sale of most types of gasoline on foreign markets was banned even earlier.
A ban on the export of most brands of gasoline has been in effect again since April 1. This has partially supported domestic supplies.
Officially, the situation at gas stations looks relatively calm: the average price of gasoline has risen by only 2 rubles since the beginning of the year - to 67.53 rubles per liter.
However, exchange data suggests otherwise. By the end of May, the volume of premium 95th gasoline offered for sale in the European part of Russia had fallen to about 5,000 tons per day - that is, one third of the supply a year ago. Exchange prices for this type of fuel have risen by more than 20% year-on-year.
This is already making it difficult for independent gas station networks that are not affiliated with major oil companies to purchase fuel in bulk.
Kremlin denies there is a problem
“Russia does not see a risk of fuel shortages yet,“ Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on May 21. He attributed the drop in production to seasonal maintenance and added that fuel supply and demand in Russia are balanced.
So far, restrictions on fuel purchases have been introduced only on the occupied Crimean peninsula. Last summer, the shortage affected the Russian Far East and the occupied Ukrainian territories.
The attacks coincided with the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: flows through it have practically stopped due to the conflict in the Middle East. The loss of barrels from the Gulf countries has forced Russia to increase crude oil exports.