In Sunday's elections, Armenians are choosing not only a new parliament, but the geopolitical direction of the country - rapid integration into the European Union (EU) or a return to the Russian sphere of influence.
According to a study by the American International Republican Institute (IRI), Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party "Civil Contract" is leading among voters with 32%. The pro-Russian opposition is represented by three forces - 7% say they will vote for "Strong Armenia" of Russian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, 4% for the "Armenia" bloc of former President Robert Kocharyan and 2% for "Prosperous Armenia" of Gagik Tsarukyan. Karapetyan is currently under house arrest after being accused of inciting violence in the dispute between the Armenian Apostolic Church and Prime Minister Pashinyan.
However, experts say the polls may be inaccurate, as only 16% of those polled said who they would vote for - while 92% said they would participate in the elections. However, all polls give the prime minister's party a lead of between 26 and 34 percent.
Brussels or Moscow?
Foreign policy is at the center of the election campaign. The rulers have moved the country closer to the European Union and away from Yerevan, Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization it leads.
In May 2025, the Armenian parliament passed a law that allows the start of the EU accession process, and Pashinyan promised visa-free travel to Europe within two years.
When Pashinyan said in May during the European Political Community summit in Yerevan that his country was “not an ally” of Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, the reaction was not long in coming: Vladimir Putin threatened Yerevan with imposing tariffs and creating legal obstacles to Armenian citizens working in Russia. Putin has suggested that Armenia hold a referendum on whether it wants to join the EU or remain in the Eurasian Economic Union.
Russian threats and interference
Russia is the largest market for Armenian agricultural products and is trying to use this as a weapon - before the elections, the Russian authorities introduced a number of restrictions on imports from the South Caucasus country. Moscow has threatened Yerevan that it may review energy deals with the country and has talked about a "crisis" similar to the one in Ukraine.
Tensions in Armenia as a result of Russian interference have been growing for months. The independent investigative website The Insider has published an investigation into Russian spy networks in the country. It claims that billionaire Samvel Karapetyan listed the information center of the Federal Security Service of Russia as his employer in his passport application in 1999. A major political scandal also erupted after the arrest of Andranik Tevanyan from “Prosperous Armenia”. The politician, known for his pro-Russian views, is accused of treason and espionage. The opposition described both the cases and the article by The Insider as “political persecution”.
The elephant in the room - relations with Azerbaijan
Pashinyan is warming up his relations not only with Brussels, but also with Washington. The two countries recently signed a charter for strategic partnership, and in August 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached an agreement brokered by Trump.
Pashinyan's party officially says it is transforming its relations with Russia as part of a strategy to diversify its foreign policy. The crisis in relations between Yerevan and Moscow escalated in late 2022, when Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization clashed in Nagorno-Karabakh. The pro-Russian opposition, however, insists that Russia is a guarantor of security in negotiations with Azerbaijan.
In the campaign, Pashinyan spoke of the "real Armenia", abandoning revisionist ideas about restoring "historical borders". The opposition criticizes him and claims that he should fight for the rights of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, who left their homes after 2023. However, according to the authorities, in this way they want to bring the country closer to war with Azerbaijan. The IRI survey shows that 61% of Armenians believe that the country is moving in the right direction.
Author: Arshaluys Mgdesyan