The ruling "Prosperity Party" of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won a landslide majority in the country's parliamentary elections, securing a new five-year term in office. According to official figures presented by the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), the Nobel Peace Prize laureate's party holds 438 out of 501 seats in the lower house of parliament.
Despite the clear numerical triumph, the legitimacy of the vote remains under serious question on the international stage and among the local opposition. The elections were marked by heightened tension, logistical problems and armed conflicts that left millions of citizens without the right to vote.
A vote in the shadow of weapons and isolation
The sharpest criticism of the electoral process is related to the complete exclusion of the northern Tigray region from the vote. The electoral board justified its decision by citing “adverse conditions“ resulting from the devastating two-year civil war (2020-2022) and ongoing political instability there. This deprived the region of federal representation for the sixth consecutive year.
In addition, security was also seriously compromised in other key parts of the country:
Amhara Region: Due to fierce clashes between the federal army and the local “Fano“ militia, election day did not take place at all in dozens of polling stations. Oromia Region: The actions of the separatist “Oromo Liberation Army“ (OLA) led to the closure or non-recognition of voters in 143 polling stations.
Economic promises against accusations of authoritarianism
During their campaign, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his supporters emphasized ambitious economic reforms. The government forecasts economic growth of over 10%, which would make Ethiopia one of the fastest growing economies on the African continent. The candidates also promised large-scale measures to improve food security in a nation historically plagued by famine.
On the other hand, opposition leaders and a number of international human rights organizations accuse Abiy Ahmed of a systematic retreat from democratic principles. According to their statements, the pre-election environment was saturated with fear and intimidation, and many key political opponents and independent journalists have been arrested, forced to emigrate or prevented from registering to vote. Merara Gudina, a professor at Addis Ababa University and a prominent opposition leader, called the vote a “farce“ and warned that the results would further worsen the country's fragile stability.
What's next?
The chairwoman of the Electoral Board, Melatwork Hailu, defended the institution's work, saying that it had maintained complete neutrality and legality. Observers from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) described the process in the capital as organized, but were criticized for not deploying enough teams to the conflict-ridden provinces.
The newly elected parliament is expected to convene for a formal session in October, when Abiy Ahmed will be officially re-elected for a new 5-year term. The big question for Addis Ababa, however, remains whether the central government will succeed in achieving real national dialogue and peace, or whether an electoral victory without the participation of key regions will open a new stage of internal conflicts.