British General Richard Barnes said that Ukraine may lose the war in 2024, the British BBC reported.
The former commander of the British Joint Command said that “there is a serious risk” Russia to win the war this year. The reason, he said, is that the Ukrainians will realize that they cannot win at the front.
„And when it comes to that point, why would people want to fight and die any more just to protect the indefensible?” said Richard Barrons. However, he pointed out that this moment has not yet arrived.
Ukrainian forces are currently experiencing critical shortages of ammunition, troops and air defense. A counter-offensive last summer failed to push Russian troops away from the occupied lands, and now the tide is turning and Moscow is preparing for its own offensive this summer. Volodymyr Zelensky expects the Russians to launch a large-scale attack at the end of May.
Richard Barrons has pointed out that the Russians vastly outnumber the Ukrainian forces in manpower and ammunition. “Russia is preparing for the big offensive. Ukraine risks allowing a breakthrough in areas where the armed forces will not be able to stop them”, said the British military.
According to military experts, the Russian army will be able to advance: the question is where. Dr Jack Watling, a senior research fellow in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, believes that one possible direction is the city of Kharkiv. If it succeeds in capturing the city, Russia will deal a catastrophic blow to Ukraine's morale and economy.
In Donbas, the outlook for Ukraine is also not good. The war has been going on in this part of the country since 2014. In recent months, the Russian army has captured Bakhmut and Avdeyevka, with Kiev's argument for fighting fiercely for these small towns being that it inflicts huge losses on the occupiers in the “meat grinder”. Even if the Ukrainian tactics are better, however, Russia vastly outnumbers the Ukrainians in manpower and artillery. And if the West does not give the ZSU the urgently needed weapons, the Russian army will continue to advance village by village.
Another potential target is Zaporozhye. The city of 700,000 (in peacetime) is dangerously close to the front lines. The city is also something of a thorn in Russia's side, given that it is the capital of an oblast of the same name that Russia illegally annexed, and yet the city is still under Ukrainian control. Dr. Jack Watling believes that the Russian goal is to “try to create a sense of hopelessness”. “This (Russian) offensive will not bring a decisive end to the conflict, regardless of how it plays out for either side,”, he says. One thing is certain: Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of giving up his attack on Ukraine.
Putin is counting on the West not being able to provide Ukraine with enough funds to defend itself. For all the NATO summits, all the conferences and all the rousing speeches, there's a chance he'll be right.