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Ukraine's existence depends on an unclear sentence in the Zelensky-Trump agreement

Kiev has demanded security guarantees from the US in exchange for its rare earth elements. But Washington does not want to commit to such.

Снимка: БГНЕС/ EPA

For a long time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refused to make a deal for Ukraine's rare earth resources with US President Donald Trump. However, this has changed. And the main question is why, write focus.de and Tagesspiegel.

Three years after the full-scale invasion of the Russian army, Ukraine is in a critical situation. The new US administration is demanding that Kiev give up its territories, refusing to promise Ukrainians entry into NATO, and Trump even called Zelensky a “dictator“.

In this difficult situation, Ukrainian raw materials have come into play. Among them are the so-called rare earth elements such as lithium, titanium and uranium, but also gas and oil. Although a significant part of these mineral resources are located in territories occupied by Russia, some deposits also exist in territory controlled by Ukraine. Trump wants a share of the revenues from these raw materials - as compensation for US military aid to Ukraine.

And here comes the logical question - what will Ukraine get? Kiev has asked for security guarantees from the US to prevent a new Russian invasion (if the ceasefire is now in place).

Zelensky had to admit that an issue that is key to his country's survival is almost completely absent [in the latest agreement between Kiev and Washington on rare earth elements]: security guarantees, which are intended to deter Russia from a new attack in the event of a ceasefire, are mentioned in only one, very vague sentence. The United States, as stated in point 10 of the document, "will support" Ukraine's relevant efforts. But nothing more than details.

Zelensky has so far refused to make a deal with the Americans for Ukrainian natural resources, but now it seems that a deal has finally been made - although the draft agreement does not provide specific security guarantees. So what has caused the change of heart in Kiev? Is the Ukrainian leadership under so much pressure that it simply has no other choice?

Many details about the agreement are still unclear - and Zelensky also emphasizes that its success depends on the negotiations he has yet to conduct with Trump.

Many details about the agreement are still unclear. “We still don't know exactly what Kiev will get in return,“ says security expert Christian Möhling. “Even if the Ukrainians do not receive security guarantees, they can continue to receive arms supplies from the United States. From Zelensky's perspective, this could be a priority in the current dramatic situation," Möhling added. "If you look at it in terms of urgency, then conventional security and equipping one's own armed forces is more important than a security guarantee from the United States."

Ultimately, military security guarantees - ideally with some form of US involvement - are the central point of a ceasefire or peace agreement. But they are not yet in sight.

Trump is conducting an open dialogue with the aggressor Vladimir Putin, and the Ukrainians are not even included at the negotiating table. Although their fate is being decided. According to experts, Ukraine is in a bad position today. If the deal on raw materials really happens, this shows that Ukraine's negotiating position is clearly bad.