The conflict in Ukraine could end by July 2025, according to a report by analysts from the American investment bank JPMorgan.
„Expect an imperfect deal by the end of the second quarter of 2025. As Europe runs out of weapons, Ukraine runs out of soldiers, the US - patience and transatlantic unity diminishes, Zelensky will likely be forced to negotiate an agreement with Russia this year that would freeze the fighting without reaching a full peace agreement“, the forecast says.
The bank's analysts call this scenario "Georgian" and estimate its probability at 50 percent. In this scenario, Ukraine, they say, will not receive security guarantees from the West after the conflict and will ultimately find itself in Russia's sphere of influence.
The report also mentions the “South Korean“, “ Israeli“ and “ Belarusian“ scenarios, the probability of which is estimated at 15, 20, and 15 percent, respectively.
On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia would not be deceived by those who propose first reaching a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and then moving on to a permanent settlement of the conflict.
"The West already deceived us in 2014, organizing a coup in the post-Soviet republic after a settlement agreement between the authorities in Kiev and the opposition. "The Minsk agreements were then violated, and European politicians later admitted that these agreements were needed only to buy time for Kiev," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.