Ukraine Can Still Win the War, a Grand Shift in Western Strategy Needed

When U.S. President Donald Trump took office in early 2025, many in Washington expected a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine, writes Foreign Affairs.

It is noted that during the election campaign he boasted that he could end the conflict in 24 hours. While few analysts believed this specific promise, many speculated about the possible terms and conditions of a future agreement.

"Russia is much weaker economically than many analysts believe, and severe sanctions and export controls could still cripple its military economy. Ukraine is fighting smart and can turn the tide with more high-tech drones, air defense systems, long-range missiles and ammunition. By changing its strategy, Ukraine can still win the war in the near future - if both Europe and the United States decide to provide it with the necessary assistance," the article states.

According to journalists, much of the premature optimism about reaching an agreement earlier this year was due to the prevailing belief that Ukraine was losing and would soon be forced to negotiate out of desperation. Trump fueled this rhetoric by saying that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was “without cards“. This was supported by the second, equally damaging assumption that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to subjugate Ukraine cannot be contained.

The publication notes that both assumptions are based on a very limited reading of the dynamics on the battlefield and a limited understanding of the political options available to Ukraine’s supporters. Despite significant limitations in the assistance that Europe and the United States have offered over the past three and a half years, Ukraine has achieved impressive successes.

They recall that in March 2022 it was the first to repel Russia's initial advance on Kiev, later regained almost a thousand square kilometers in the Kharkiv region, and just a few weeks ago Ukraine shocked the world with Operation Spiderweb.

"What has consistently hampered Ukraine's military efforts is not a lack of human resources or Kiev's weak resolve compared to Putin's, but rather a lack of modern military capabilities. Rather than prolonging the war by providing Ukraine with too much military aid, Kiev's foreign allies are prolonging it by providing too little and often with significant delays."

It is noted that when it came to punitive economic measures against Russia, the international response was also untimely. Despite these mistakes, Ukraine's victory - minimally defined as preserving its sovereignty and continuing its course towards NATO and EU membership - is still achievable. Analysts say this requires a fundamental shift in Western strategy, combining a significant increase in military aid with tougher economic measures to curb Russia's war economy.

"Victory may not come quickly, cheaply, or easily. But it is still possible, and it will likely cost fewer lives and resources than maintaining the status quo. It remains to be seen whether the West, especially Europe, is ready to mobilize its political will to secure this bright future," they add.