Vladimir Putin uses KGB techniques and manipulates Donald Trump

The peace talks between Russia and Ukraine announced by US President Donald Trump have practically failed. But Vladimir Putin has likely factored this into his calculations and has a plan in place, writes Rebecca Koffler, a military intelligence analyst who previously worked for the US Military Intelligence Agency, in an article for The Telegraph.

Koffler believes Putin’s goal is to control Trump in the game, keep him happy (or at least not angry) for as long as possible, delay negative consequences such as secondary sanctions, while continuing a grueling military strategy designed to force Ukraine to capitulate.

“And to manage Trump, Putin, who dedicated his KGB career to recruiting and running spy networks in Germany, may be relying on a combination of intelligence asset management skills, judo philosophy and Cold War psychological warfare concepts,“ she writes.

KGB psychological tricks

Flattery

Flattery is one of the tricks that KGB agents use to appeal to the vanity of their potential opponent. Putin has never spoken negatively about Trump. Instead, he is always inclined to praise Trump's political acumen and personality, calling him “smart“, “experienced“, “talented“, “intelligent“ and “pragmatic“. Putin also manages to take advantage of Trump's positive attitude, his goal of winning a Nobel Prize and his sympathy for Russians and Ukrainians dying on the battlefield, the columnist notes.

““Reflexive control“

To buy time, Putin may be trying to influence Trump using a technique known as “reflexive control“ – a concept designed to manipulate an opponent's perception of reality.

Coffman believes Trump could be a perfect target for this technique because of his preconceived notion that there is nothing he cannot solve using his deal-making skills, and the assumption that Putin's logic is apparently the same as that of the Americans.

"Putin structures his actions and words to create the impression that he is interested in a deal and that Trump will believe him. In reality, Putin would only agree to a deal on his terms.“

A Judo Experience

Judo is a Japanese martial art that relies more on mental and physical manipulation of the opponent than on brute force. Putin applies the principles of judo to all aspects of his life, including running the country, the analyst notes.

Kicking an opponent off balance is one of the main principles of judo, designed to disrupt his stance by shifting his center of gravity for throws and techniques. Putin seems to have managed to shake off Trump by not directly contradicting him and alternating friendly contacts with bombings of Ukraine.

All three elements of Putin's strategy are based on a deep understanding of the enemy and preparation, which the Trump team seems to lack. At the same time, Kofman notes, Putin is likely already planning his next move in advance. For example, he could release several Ukrainian children in response to a letter from US First Lady Melania Trump. Or he could find another tactic to buy time.

The analyst notes that Putin is trying to exhaust Trump and force him to refuse negotiations or surrender and agree to all his demands.

Trump and peace talks

Despite Trump's public statements about his alleged dissatisfaction with the Russian president, the US president still does not want to put pressure on Moscow in any way and hopes to achieve a peace agreement by putting pressure on Kiev.

In his latest statement, the US leader said that he would know the positions of Russia and Ukraine in two weeks to determine the path forward for the negotiations. He warned that if the parties do not sit down at the negotiating table within two weeks, there will be consequences for the country that refuses the negotiations.