Gas markets enter 2026 strongly influenced by geopolitics, record supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and increasing dependence on the US. An ICIS analysis outlines ten key trends that will shape the balance between demand, supply and prices in Europe throughout the year.
The first trend is related to the war in Ukraine, for which ICIS does not expect a ceasefire or peace agreement in 2026. This continues to create uncertainty around supplies and affects market sentiment. Any negotiations could lead to increased volatility, but Europe is already on track to completely phase out Russian gas and LNG imports by 2027.
The second trend is record European LNG imports. After a big jump in 2025, ICIS predicts a new peak of around 130 million tonnes in 2026, supported by strong US supplies and sufficient regasification capacity in Europe.
The third trend is related to the shift of the energy center of gravity towards North America. The US share of European LNG supplies could exceed 60%, meaning that a quarter of European gas consumption will be met by US production.
The fourth trend is a global gas balance that looks set to be almost perfect for 2026 – 466 million tonnes of demand and 465.9 million tonnes of supply. Europe and the largest Asian importers will be the main drivers of this growth.
The fifth trend concerns China – the world’s largest LNG buyer. After a weak 2025, ICIS expects growth of around 9% in 2026, driven by an industrial recovery. However, domestic production and pipeline supplies from Asia and Russia will limit the need for further imports.
The sixth trend concerns the US domestic market, where ICIS forecasts structurally higher gas prices in 2026, averaging around $4.10/MMBtu. However, this will not lead to a direct price link to European indices, nor to restrictions on US LNG supplies.
The seventh trend is related to European gas storage. The continent is likely to emerge from winter with lower stocks – below 30% – which carries the risk of short-term price spikes in a colder season. However, ICIS sees no threat to security of supply thanks to new LNG capacity.
The eighth trend affects European demand. After three years of decline and moderate growth of 1.8% in 2025, the forecast for 2026 is below 2%, with the housing sector leading, industry remaining under pressure and electricity generation declining due to a higher share of wind generation.
The ninth trend is Germany's coal phase-out. Berlin could slow down the coal phase-out to compensate for the capacity shortfall before new gas-fired power plants come on stream. This would limit extreme electricity price peaks but would not fundamentally change gas prices.
The tenth trend is the rise in carbon prices. ICIS expects EUA allowances to reach €100/tonne CO₂ in the first half of the year. This will put upward pressure on electricity prices and downward pressure on industrial gas demand, and a regulatory review of the ETS is likely to be activated in July.
According to ICIS, 2026 will be a year of definitive reshuffling of Europe's gas map: the US becomes a key partner, LNG unifies global markets, and geopolitics continues to dictate risks and opportunities.