The analysis shows , that in a total of 827 sections of the two elections, serious deviations from the general results in the respective settlements and regions are shown. In the parliamentary elections in April 2021, a total of 186,515 votes were cast. In 2023, there were a total of 143,724 voters in the risk sections. This was reported by the Institute for the Development of the Public Environment.
All sections with less than 100 voters on the list in the respective year are excluded from the sections of the country. This was done because the weight of the votes in them would not lead to significant changes in the final results.
Data from the analyzes show that the electoral weight of votes in sections with deviating voter behavior amounts to between 5% and 10% for each parliamentary election since 2013. However, this does not mean that the weight of the controlled vote is in same size.
In some cases, there are rational explanations for the deviant electoral behavior in the sections. People in small towns and homogeneous communities can vote according to personal preferences – for example, for a candidate who is from the area or ethnic group, who has a professional reputation, etc. But deviations in electoral behavior can also be due to serious violations – be it voter control and corporate vote, administrative pressure and others.
This is precisely why a comprehensive assessment of the manipulated vote for each district must include a multi-factor analysis. It should be conducted with the necessary level of understanding of the socio-economic situation: for example, unemployment rates, the role of government in the local economy, the age and ethnic structure of the population, etc.
Therefore, the determination of the “price” for and the weight of the bought vote in Bulgaria based only on the election results will be an impossible and speculative endeavor if these data do not also reflect the specifics of the local context.
Immediately before each of the campaigns in the last three years, the formations are accused of using vicious practices to influence voters, they talk about bought and controlled votes, about networks of dependencies.
We should not forget, however, that it was the parties that won votes in such a way that made decisions on the development of state policies in all spheres of government and the resolution of the most pressing problems facing the country.
Among them, after 2021, reforms in healthcare, education, social policies, increasing incomes, controlling inflation, dealing with the consequences of the Covid crisis, the impact of the war in Ukraine, Bulgaria's accession to the Eurozone and Schengen were especially important.
On the eve of the European Parliament elections, we should note that these parties have also managed the EU grant funding for the last 9 years. And it is in the amount of almost BGN 45.4 billion.