Do we hear what the political parties tell us… We are in an election campaign, aren't we… Sociologist Yanitsa Petkova from “Gallup International Balkan“ spoke to FAKTI.
- Mrs. Petkova, we have almost halved the election campaign, and what messages are we hearing from the parties. Or maybe we don't hear about them?
- It already seems to us that the campaign somehow goes by the wayside and we stop paying as much attention as we paid to previous such campaigns. The messages seem the same to us, the topics, the scandals, the problems, the faces. There is no way to expect anything else after we are talking about the seventh parliamentary elections in a row. If we include the other elections that took place within these two or three years, it is normal that the view with which the campaigns are viewed is different and less focused. This applies not only to voters, but also to political parties. A lot of them are really exhausted. After we find ourselves in the same situation, which seems very dynamic from one point of view of scandals and conflicts between political parties, but at the same time it also seems like stagnation, even deepening of crisis. The campaign is going on, but it is noticeable that there is not that much debate and participation of the main political players either in the media or in any other way. The sharp confrontation and black PR, the building of red lines, with which we associated the previous campaigns, remain in the background. The parties saw the result of this. But a new way of communication, as if it is not inherent to them.
Let's not forget the fact that the parties also have their channels for communication and campaigning – somewhere not so democratic and not so legitimate. The debate is currently revolving around these topics.
It strikes me that there is also an emphasis on serious
canvassing for votes on social networks. This is done especially by small parties, which, however, are quite active – clearly took their example from the previous elections.
- Research shows GERB-SDS as the first political force. And then what…
- Well, we'll see later. In general, if there is no dispute about the first, the difference between the second and third formations is really very small. Second place will depend on the campaign, it will depend on turnout, it will also depend on the ability of the two forces fighting for it to mobilize their voters. If pro “Revival“ the problem lies in the answer to the question of whether they have really reached their electoral potential, in the case of PP-DB, the question is really in the inability to mobilize the reserve they had 1-2 years ago.
The other interesting thing to watch is what will happen around the 4% barrier to get into parliament. Because there, due to the low voter turnout, and due to the disturbed democratic political debate of the last few years, new political forces are emerging that are taking advantage. Thus, with the looming low voter turnout, we could have new players in the parliament.
- GERB leader Boyko Borisov wants a political prime minister, and PP-DB want an equally distant one. Where will the intersection be?
- We will see the intersection after the elections – sometime October 28 and 29. Or in the weeks after. At the moment, everyone is focused on their own campaign. The topic of the equally distant prime minister has been commented on for quite some time, but not by the main expected partner - GERB. They cannot afford another failure to broadcast a government. Giving in in favor of the proposals of the PP-DB, on the other hand, risks dissatisfaction and criticism from the party's supporters themselves. It is normal in these conditions to avoid the topic at the time of the campaign. So I expect those conversations to begin and be put on the table after the election.
- PP and DB present us with two different programs… What a move that is…
- I don't think this is a purposeful move. Rather, behind it are increasingly visible differences between the two partner forces in this coalition. Look, it's clear that PP and DB are forced by circumstances to be together. They cannot appear individually if they want to be strong in any way. And a large part of their voters would not want such an option. It is increasingly apparent that there is friction - both in that they offer different programs and that they send out different messages and different ideas. The different attitude of PP and DB towards the potential partnership with GERB after the elections is also obvious.
- About 1.8 million voters are expected to come out on October 27. This is the lowest voter turnout since we've had elections. Is this just a protest vote…
? - Multiple factors contribute to this thing. First of all, I would highlight
that as many times as some mandate has already been given to the political forces in the last three years to put together something relatively stable and lasting from the voters, so many times they could not make it happen. The contradictions between the parties were not so much on the ideological and political level as on some kind of interpersonal conflicts and private interest that stood in their way. There was also purely political short-sightedness, and this affects and breaks the relationship of trust between voter and political representative, between party and society, etc. Politicians themselves speak only to their hard cores, to their private audiences. No one has tried to attract new sympathizers, to expand their support. So it is normal to expect a low voter turnout that is within the range of what we saw in previous elections or slightly lower. We have already said that low voter turnout will lead to a different outcome, where the entry of smaller and smaller political parties is possible.
- This also means less than 80,000 votes to get into parliament, and that points to between 6 and 9 parties in parliament. How to make a cabinet?
- It will be difficult. The forecasts of various sociological agencies show that there is a chance to enter the new
The National Assembly has between 6 and 9 political entities. If there are six, a ruling coalition can be made between two or three formations. This is something we have already looked at as an option. These two or three formations must have learned their lesson. The behavior during the campaign shows this. Direct confrontation is avoided. In this sense, we may witness all kinds of compromises.
If there are more parties – 7, 8 or 9 and in view of the low voter turnout, it will be very difficult to form a cabinet. We see that some of these small parties are really extremely active during this company, and with them in Parliament it will be completely different. We can witness some kind of unprincipled compromises, which, however, will be motivated as imperative, in order not to immediately go to the next election. On the other hand, we also have the opportunity to advance all kinds of new interests through new players, which will greatly change the relations in the National Assembly. Still, there is a chance, as other colleagues say, for the formation of a government in the 51st National Assembly, which is even temporary, even with a short horizon, but there is. Then there may be new conditions to force new elections to stimulate some kind of reformatting of the actors in power. At this stage - regardless of whether there are 6 or 9 parties, we can expect attempts by the major political parties in the new National Assembly to form a cabinet, as well as new potential partnerships.