I am not a pessimist, but Budget 2025 may not be the last in leva.
This is what economist Vladimir Sirkarov, a lecturer at the "Dimitar Tsenov" Academy of Economics in Svishtov, told the Bulgarian National Radio:
"We have chances for the eurozone from January 2026, but we must be very careful. Politicians must be very pragmatic and as far away as possible from purely political talk on topics such as budget, energy and several others like that. Business-related regulations should be as most optimal in terms of size and control, of course. So that the currency conversion and the entire transformation process related to the adoption of the euro can be relatively on schedule".
As basic parameters, it seems that the budget is written for entering the eurozone, but there are many question marks as to whether it will be implemented, he emphasized
"There are many question marks related to the estimates of Budget 2025, the forecasts on the basis of which the revenue part was made. We all hope to achieve this 3% deficit, but there are great concerns that the expenses are inflated extremely much. The increase in expenses is nearly 19 billion leva. We see an optimistic forecast related to both economic growth and revenues, especially revenues from VAT, which are set with an extremely serious increase, which will be quite, quite difficult to implement. ... To say that there will now be some kind of jump in collection would mean that the NRA has not worked extremely effectively so far, which is not the case. The NRA has been reforming for years and working increasingly effectively," the economist also commented.
According to Vladimir Sirkarov, the adopted budget is tense, the political situation in the country is also quite tense:
"If the revenue part starts to lag behind, we will not cover the eurozone criterion of a 3% deficit, but this is extremely important for us too - not to make such deficits, especially in an economic situation that does not suggest anything like this. Therefore, if the estimates and forecasts start to diverge from those set in the 2025 Budget, an update will be necessary. Thus, politicians will have a loophole in front of the voters, that they will have to touch the expenditure side - whether certain expenses will be cut, or postponed for future periods, but to end the year with up to a 3% deficit.
In his words, "in such a situation with a very serious expenditure side and with a very serious intervention by the state in economic processes, as well as the drawing of debt, it is logical to expect higher inflation":
"It is difficult to say how much, but it may be above 2.4%, which raises the question of whether we will exit the Maastricht criterion. This also depends on the other countries in the eurozone, on the basis of which it will be calculated whether we meet the criterion.