GERB remains a stable leader with 25.5% support, a survey by "Alpha Research" shows. The PP-DB coalition is second (13.9%), despite the turmoil, closely followed by "DPS - New Beginning" (13.1%), which increases its influence against the background that the APS remains below the threshold for entering the National Assembly.
If the elections were held today, 8 parties would enter the parliament - GERB-SDF, PP-DB, "DPS - Novo nachlacho", BSP, MECH, ITN and "Velicie".
With the two coalition partners of GERB - BSP and ITN, no significant dynamics are observed. BSP retains its support of 8 percent, while ITN has recorded a slight decline (to 4.7%). The electorate of this party is highly emotional and reacts strongly not only to unsuccessful actions, but also to offensive speech.
Displacements are observed in the nationalist spectrum. It retains its volume of about 22 percent of the voters, but "Vazrazhdane" is in retreat (to 11.5%), at the expense of MECH (6.3%), "Velicie" remains at 4.1%. At this stage, two hypotheses can be put forward for this development, in which there will certainly be subsequent dynamics.
First, "Vazrazhdane" focused mainly on the protests against the euro, and President Radev also sharply entered this topic. Thus, the party was unable to accumulate the votes of opponents of the single European currency for itself alone, and with the final decision to introduce the euro, people oriented themselves towards searching for practical information on what and how to do, rather than towards radical street protests. The second hypothesis is related to MECH's positioning in the more general populist discourse of the "anti-elites" type, which, combined with activity on social networks, attracts supporters of the sector who are susceptible to such messages. To this must be added the high volatility of this profile of voters, who in recent years have successively switched from "Ataka" to NFSB, VMRO, "Vazrazhdane" and who are generally inclined to seek new, more attractive exponents of their views, sociologists point out.
Attitude towards institutions: the imprint of a divided society
Like most Bulgarian governments in recent years, the current coalition is accumulating negatives over time. Its public popularity is decreasing, with positive assessments falling to 26% and negative ones increasing to 39%. The government is firmly supported by GERB supporters and a large part of the supporters of the eurozone. 46% of those surveyed believe that it is the great success of the cabinet and the country. In this context, Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov is also very stable, with trust in whom has increased by 6 percentage points since January and he is currently one of the few politicians with a positive rating.
Negative assessments of the government come from two lines - from opponents of joining the eurozone with their fears of rising prices and the state's failure to begin overcoming systematically unresolved problems - in healthcare, the social sphere with the revealed "houses of horrors", infrastructure, the war on the roads, aggression by and between minors, etc.
The Prime Minister has capital that could consolidate trust in the government, but this cannot be done without results in individual policies.
The continuing huge division in society is also evident in the negative rating of the National Assembly (8% approval versus 69% disapproval), which is lower than the share of supporters of the parties supporting the government. The feeling of a lack of representation and protection of interests even by those for whom people voted is a serious risk to the reputation of the country's supreme body.
The Speaker of the Parliament Natalia Kiselova enjoys a slightly higher popularity (16% approval versus 50% disapproval), but also lower than the sympathizers of the parties that supported her.
President Rumen Radev continues to be the politician with the relatively highest rating (39% positive versus 33% negative attitude), but the polarization in society, and in particular in the attitude towards his initiative for a referendum on the euro, also takes away from his credit of trust. Compared to January, he recorded a drop of 5 percentage points in approval and withdrawal of representatives of the liberal professions, private business, and those employed in modern industries.
The dynamics in the ratings of the leaders of the formed unified trio - "Vazrazhdane", MECH," Velichie" is also interesting. Kostadin Kostadinov, who has positioned himself as the most radical protest spokesman, although occupying fourth position in terms of approval (14.5%), is losing his January rating and is being closely followed by Radostin Vassilev, who is active on social networks and focused on the "anti-elite" message (14.4%). The leaders of the two co-ruling parties, Atanas Zafirov (10.3%) and Slavi Trifonov (12.4%), either due to greater passivity, disapproval by their sympathizers of publicly expressed positions, or the absence of visible benefits from their participation in the government, are also in a slight negative trend.
As a result of the active inclusion of new structures, the leader of "DPS - New Beginning" Delyan Peevski increased his rating by 1 point (to 6.8%), remaining the most polarizing figure. Only 17% have a neutral opinion of him, which is the lowest share compared to all other leaders, even to the veteran Boyko Borisov.
Electoral attitudes: between the calm of the non-election period and the Damoclesian sword of possible new party projects
Electoral attitudes, measured in a non-election period, are not an accurate guide to a possible election result "if there are elections next Sunday". They largely reproduce the current parliamentary and extra-parliamentary status quo and only when "all actors are on stage" can the real balance of power be established. However, they can be considered as an indicator of positives or damages that parties suffer as a result of their participation in current political life.
At the time of conducting the survey, two of the most discussed topics with the potential to influence electoral attitudes towards parties from different parts of the political spectrum were: what are the damages to the PP-DB as a result of the actions of the CPC and the withdrawal of Kiril Petkov, and is there room for new political projects. "Alpha Research" asked questions on both hot topics that help to understand the dynamics of electoral attitudes.
When asked "When there are suspicions of corruption, do the prosecutor's office and investigative bodies work equally actively on cases related to the ruling party and the opposition?" only 5.9% believe that such cases are investigated equally actively both among the ruling party and the opposition. Even fewer, 1.6%, claim that cases related to the ruling party are investigated more actively. 38.3% are of the opinion that investigators are purposefully and selectively focused on the opposition. Another 41.7% are convinced that cases of major corruption are not being worked on seriously, neither when they affect the ruling party nor the opposition. This attitude also determines the extremely high, at first glance, share of voters who are ready to seek "new salvation". To the experimental question "would they vote for a new party that is a real fighter against corruption", 49% said "yes", 25% - "no", and the same number - "cannot judge". Precisely because there is a feeling of "game" between parties and patronage in cases of corruption, the greatest damage from individual actions is suffered not by a single party, but by political entities as a whole.
How does this context affect the electoral attitudes measured in July?
GERB consistently remains the first political force (25.5%), with no significant difference in the result compared to either the last elections or the January data of "Alpha Research". Although at a significant distance, PP-DB retains its position as the second political force (13.9%). Two factors influence the limitation of damage from the scandals - first, the stable positions of DB, which continues to enjoy a serious credit of trust, and, second, the unity of the coalition's supporters after the second action (in Varna). It is possible that after the "coup in Sofia" positions were more shaky, but after the second similar action there was visible mobilization.
Support for "DPS - New Beginning" has increased and reached 13.1%, with a dramatic erosion of APS (support of only 2.8%). It is entirely possible that in the near future Peevski's party will collect all this vote and play with much stronger electoral cards. Moreover, due to specifics in the mobilization of the ethnic vote, surveys as a rule measure lower results than those shown in elections.