Against the backdrop of the intensified public debate about the country's economic stability and preparations for adopting the euro, in the program "Your Day" on NOVA NEWS, experts commented on key financial issues. Credit consultant Tihomir Toshev and economist Rumen Galabinov provided clarity on the topics of tax policy towards banks, the state of the budget and future economic trends.
Have banks paid their taxes in advance?
One of the main topics in the conversation was the information that banks have paid profit tax in advance not only for the current 2025, but also for 2026. Tihomir Toshev expressed skepticism about the claim that this happened for such a distant period, emphasizing that such a move makes no financial sense.
„All companies in Bulgaria have until April 15 to forecast their profits and start paying advance tax for the current year. This is standard practice“, Toshev explained. He added that it is very likely that banks have made advance payments for 2025 given their record year, but a payment for 2026 would be a precedent.
Rumen Galabinov explained that the government has several mechanisms for ensuring budget revenues, including requiring advance taxes from high-profit sectors or issuing domestic government debt. According to him, such measures are being implemented to ensure that the budget deficit will remain within the set 3% by the end of the year.
The Budget and Economic Expectations
Both experts expressed optimism about the revenue side of the budget. “It is very likely that the revenues will be fulfilled because the economic environment is currently very good“, Toshev said. He stressed that there is no unemployment, most companies are reporting profit growth, and the banking sector is overly liquid.
Galbinov added that he expects a strong second half of the year, supported by the land Schengen and a strong tourist season, which will generate additional budget revenues. “I am optimistic about the revenue side, but we must be careful with the expenditure side. We must not allow the budget to be updated,” he warned.
With the approach of the adoption of the euro, one of the main fears is related to inflation. However, the economist is adamant that Bulgaria will meet the criteria. “By the end of the year, we will manage to fit in around the average inflation for the eurozone. The European Central Bank has already brought inflation down to its target of 2%“, Galabinov commented.
According to Toshev, the high lending rates (over 25% growth in mortgage loans) will not lead to a sharp increase in interest rates.
„Bulgaria and Malta remain the countries with the lowest interest rates in Europe. I do not expect the free resources from the reduction in mandatory bank reserves to lead to a drop in interest rates. Rather, they will remain at their current levels“, the credit consultant predicts. Banks, for their part, will continue to be active in lending, looking for new opportunities to invest their free funds, including in large corporate projects.