Russia is expanding its military units on the border with NATO, giving them combat experience in Ukraine and could use them as centers in a possible conflict with NATO after the war. This is indicated by Lithuanian intelligence in its annual assessment of security threats, reports "Reuters".
If sanctions are lifted, Russia will be ready for "large-scale military conflict" with NATO in six years, the intelligence notes.
"Russia is likely to create not only an army 30-50% larger than it had before the war, but also a relatively modern one. "Strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition will be fully restored. Russia will be ready for a conventional military conflict with NATO," Lithuanian intelligence warns.
Tipping the balance of power in Europe in its favor, as well as the complete subjugation of Ukraine, remain key Russian goals, the report adds.
The Russian military industry has been accelerated with the help of China, allowing Moscow to reduce its dependence on Western technology. After the war, its surplus weapons would have "global security implications," the intelligence agency said.
Bordering both Russia and its close ally Belarus, Lithuania, a NATO and EU member, is a leading backer of Ukraine and critic of Russia.
The report mentions package explosions in 2024 that Lithuanian officials blame on Russian military intelligence and say may have been scaled up to kill people.
However, it notes that a series of disruptions to gas, power and telecommunications pipelines in the Baltic Sea since 2023, although caused by ships sailing from Russian ports, were not intentional. It is not clear how it reached this conclusion.
The Baltic Sea states have been on high alert after underwater outages since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. NATO has said it will boost its presence in the region.
In 2023, Finland found an anchor it said belonged to a Chinese container ship suspected of damaging a gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland, as well as several fiber optic cables. The case is still under investigation and Finnish authorities have not said whether they believe the incident was intentional or an accident.
When asked about the damage to the pipeline and cables, Mindaugas Mazonas, head of Lithuania's military intelligence, said: "The investigation was not conducted by our intelligence, but we have the answer that it was an unintentional incident".